Football Unites the World … in wishing it had paid more attention in applied mathematics class. Or so the Fifa slogan could have been expanded to say, given the mind-warping that arose from the formula for slicing the newly expanded 48-team tournament down to 32 sides for the first knockout round.
After all, why do a random draw when you can build a matrix with 495 possible scenarios in order to assign the fixtures for the eight best third-placers? Anyway, what matters is that Mauricio Pochettino’s team will face Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32, and no new format is going to stop us from – in time-honored fashion – speculating wildly about what may happen next while we still have the chance, with the potential for American wins rated using one of the mantra-loving manager’s motivational rallying cries of choice.
The US’s potential path to the final
Round of 32
Opponent: Bosnia and Herzegovina (1 July, 8pm ET, Santa Clara)
In a World Cup of twinkling veteran stars, striker Edin Džeko remains influential at the age of 40, while winger Kerim Alajbegović – 22 years his junior – is an emerging talent who scored in the 3-1 win over Qatar that secured Bosnia and Herzegovina third place in Group B and a first-ever trip to the knockout stages. The US won’t want this to go to penalties, since their opponents beat Wales and Italy on spot-kicks in the qualification play-offs. It shouldn’t; while Sergej Barbarez’s physical side are undeniably resolute and improving after an unremarkable qualifying campaign, and may feel liberated by a lack of pressure having already made history, the Americans have superior individual talent and are more fluid in possession. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where the host nation dominates from the start, with Bosnia’s best hope to defend stoutly and pinch a goal from a set-piece; or indeed, win via another shootout.
Why not us? US chances of victory rating: 7/10
Round of 16
Predicted opponent: Belgium (6 July, 8pm ET, Seattle)
Belgium seem to be dwindling: a fading bunch of elites who missed their window for glory a couple of tournaments ago. Is the 5-1 win over minnows New Zealand that lifted Rudi Garcia’s side to the top of Group G better evidence of their continuing potential than the tepid ties with Egypt and Iraq? Not necessarily. There’s cause for the US to be wary, certainly, but not fearful. This would be a fixture to evoke memories of one of the most heroic failures in US men’s national team history: the 2-1 extra time loss to Belgium in the last 16 at the 2014 World Cup. Belgium won with goals from Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku – who both also scored against New Zealand in Vancouver. And Thibaut Courtois is still in goal. More relevant is the 5-2 win for Belgium over the US in an Atlanta friendly only three months ago. But both teams were under-strength and it was a useful learning experience for Pochettino and his charges, who at least had most of the possession. If the US do indeed have to face a top 10 nation at this relatively early stage, Belgium are probably the one they’d want. And the confidence-boost from victory would be colossal.
Why not us? rating: 6/10
Quarter-finals
Predicted opponent: Spain (10 July, 3pm ET, Los Angeles)
The European champions and second-favourites at this World Cup? Of course, they’re more likely than not to beat the US. Here’s the case for the “not”: Spain look heavily reliant for their creative spark on Lamine Yamal, who’s still only 18. Rampant possession isn’t a guarantee of an end product, as we saw in the goalless draw with Cape Verde. They weren’t especially impressive in Friday’s 1-0 win over Uruguay, doing just enough but no more. And the US may thrive as heavy underdogs on home soil, with fervent backing but little pressure. Spain are better-equipped now than they were at Qatar 2022, when they lost on penalties to an inspired Morocco in the last 16. But if Luis de la Fuente’s men are significantly below par while the Americans play the game of their lives, there’s enough ability in the US team to deliver another shock. It would, though, probably require a level of defensive discipline and tactical rigidity that the US don’t appear to possess. They look good when on the front foot against comparable or weaker opponents; when on the back foot against higher-ranked teams … not so much.
Why not us? rating: 3/10
Semi-finals
Predicted opponent: France (14 July, 3pm ET, Dallas)
Didier Deschamps’ side were the most impressive nation in the group stage, though their tremendous attacking flair and depth glossed over some lackadaisical defending: see, for example, the insouciance that allowed Norway to score a few seconds after the restart when France took a 2-0 lead on Friday. Les Bleus, did, admittedly, go on to win 4-1. But the US are more dynamic and sharper than a second-string Norway XI. An on-song Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun could surely test the French back line, especially if the team are given free rein to overlap with the same ambition and flexibility that demolished Paraguay. After all, “When people believe in each other, impossible dreams become possible,” as Pochettino likes to put it, in a motivational motto that sounds like it could have been lifted from a 1980s power ballad. On the other hand, France are not Paraguay, and if they’ve made it this far they may well have beaten Germany and the Netherlands en route, which would imply that their defense is good enough. If the game becomes a stretched-out slugfest, a nightmare thrashing at the hands of France will become possible.
Why not us? rating: 2/10
Final
Predicted opponent: England (19 July, 3pm ET, New York-New Jersey)
It’s the history-making, history-repeating match-up that’s meant to be. In the month that the United States celebrates its founding, it’s the perfect time to reflect on the fundamental principles that have shaped American greatness in the past 250 years: dreaming big, working hard, bringing the hype and charging as much as the market will bear. This World Cup has richly – very richly – delivered in every respect. A US-England World Cup final in New York (OK, New Jersey) would be an even more unusual party than UFC fights on the White House lawn. And what better way to assuage the nation’s disappointment after the Vanilla Ice concert on the National Mall was cancelled? If England don’t top their group, this is a potential quarter-final match-up. Whenever it might occur, with a former Premier League manager at the helm and plenty of players with English experience, the Americans have a degree of familiarity with England that will help them stun Thomas Tuchel’s side, with spirit, swelling confidence and home advantage compensating for inferior individual skill.
If the US really do make it this far something magical and miraculous is happening and they’re destined to win the trophy. Which will probably end up on a shelf in the Oval Office next to the Fifa Peace Prize and all the other gilded clutter.
Why not us? rating: 10/10
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