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Stuck between superpowers: How Australia navigates the China-US rivalry


The war scenario playing out before us is part of a major joint exercise known as “Southern Jackaroo” – a training programme involving the Australian, American and Japanese armed forces aimed at strengthening defence co-operation across the Indo-Pacific.

“We like to call ourselves America’s 911 response force,” US Marine Kevin Hicks says.

And in terms of numbers, they are more prepared than ever. In 2012, just 200 US Marines were deployed to Australia for an annual six-month deployment. Today, that figure has risen to around 2,500.

A quick read of Australia’s 2026 National Defence Strategy gives you an easy answer as to why these numbers are growing.

“Intense competition between major powers – principally the United States and China – will be an enduring feature of our strategic environment,” it said.

“China continues to undertake the largest military build-up in the world today, without the transparency or strategic reassurance the region expects.”

The military tie-ups aren’t just being seen in terms of troops but in bases too – most obviously in the north of the country such as RAAF Tindal air base in the Northern Territory which has been upgraded to support long-range American B52 bombers.

But the security partnership between the US, the UK and Australia – Aukus – arming Australia with nuclear submarines, is arguably the biggest example of deepening ties.

The Australian approach differs from that of its fellow middle powers. While Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney has talked about middle powers reorganising their priorities in light of an increasingly unreliable US, Australia seems to be intent on tying itself ever closer.


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