Key events
Every year miles of column inches are spent discussing Origin lore, who wants it more, home advantage, and other intangibles. But this year it could come down to something as prosaic as goal kicking. Queensland are 6/7 off the tee in 2025, while NSW are 3/10.
Cleary’s dodgy groin has been a significant factor in this inaccuracy, but there’s no shortage of other goal kicking options. Latrell Mitchell is kicking at 85% for Souths, Steven Crichton at 84% for the Bulldogs, yet it is Zac Lomax who has been entrusted with responsibilities, despite only registering only 78% for the Eels.
Now it’s Billy Slater’s turn in front of the mic.
It’s going to take our best that’s for sure. I think both teams have been working towards a better performance, so I’m expecting something pretty special from the opposition and hopefully we can deliver as well.
On Cameron Munster leading his side following the death of his father just a few days ago.
It’s a courageous and brave effort isn’t it? And we all admire him for that. It goes to show you how much this footy team, this state means to him, and this game means to him. So I know his dad would be pretty proud of him.
Laurie Daley has given his final briefing to the host broadcaster.
I think our preparation has been first class. I can’t fault it. Boys are pretty dialled in. Obviously they know what’s at stake tonight and I reckon we’ll give our best performance of the three game series.
The plan with Payne [Haas] was always to get ready for tonight, rather than getting ready for a training session on a on a Monday or a Tuesday. So look, he’s ready to go. And Brian [To’o] probably surprised us with what he did on the on the Monday night. So no no concerns at all.
We’ve got to be very disciplined. This game is hard enough without giving away penalties, and it also rewards you if you’re strong with you discipline. So that’s what we’re aiming to do.
Where will Origin 3 be won and lost? Jack Snape has the answers.
The Blues boast two of the most devastating players in the game, Stephen Crichton and Latrell Mitchell, and both line up in the centres. Opposite them stand two unheralded underdogs.
20-year-old Robert Toia has acquitted himself well in his first Origin series, and Gehamat Shibasaki, the 27-year-old Broncos journeyman, lines up on the other side of the field making his debut.
While Toia has not looked out of place at Origin level, the Blues now have 160 minutes of vision to target his tendencies. And as effective as he has been in the NRL this season, there is a reason Shibasaki was on a train-and-trial with the Broncos at the start of the season, having bounced around the lower grades and even Japanese rugby union.
Slater’s decision to roll with this unproven centre pairing – despite having alternatives like Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Val Holmes deployed elsewhere in the backline – is more of a gamble than calling on Papalii for one or two valiant shifts in the middle. If it pays off, Queensland’s narrow path to victory remains open.
NSW will kick off.
Isaah Yeo won the toss and offered Queensland the first carry. That means Josh Papali’i could be straight back in the thick of the action on his return to the big stage.
7 – Josh Papalii is set to feature in his 7th State of #Origin Game 3 decider, joining Cameron Smith (9), Petero Civoniceva (8), Darren Lockyer (8), Mitchell Pearce (7), Allan Langer (7) & Johnathan Thurston (7) as 1 of 7 players to play at least 7 series defining games. Fate. pic.twitter.com/EJ5dqjKzEm
— OptaJason (@OptaJason) July 9, 2025
Team news.
Both teams go in as listed earlier this week.
Laurie Daley has done his utmost all series not to tinker with with his 17 and the Blues go into the decider unchanged. However, there are plenty of question marks over the fitness of the NSW squad. Nathan Cleary was clearly hampered by a groin injury in game two and he will be on only light kicking duties this evening. Halves partner Jarome Luai was in hospital late last week with an infection. Brian To’o has been troubled enough by a knee injury that Jacob Kiraz was brought into camp. And Payne Haas has been spotted wearing a back brace to stabilise his massive frame.
Billy Slater was forced into a change when Kalyn Ponga suffered a serious foot injury playing for the Knights. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow shifts to fullback, Valentine Holmes moves to the wing, and Gehamat Shibasaki debuts in the left centre role that has made him one of the NRL’s breakout stars this season. Elsewhere, Slater cajoled veteran Josh Papali’i out of representative retirement for one final swing with the Raider replacing Moeaki Fotuaika in the front row.
Queensland XIII
1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Gehamat Shibasaki, 5. Valentine Holmes, 6. Cameron Munster ©, 7. Tom Dearden, 8. Josh Papali’i, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 11. Reuben Cotter, 12. Kurt Capewell, 13. Trent Loiero.
Interchange: 14. Kurt Mann, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Jeremiah Nanai, 17. Patrick Carrigan.
NSW XIII
1. Dylan Edwards, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Latrell Mitchell, 5. Zac Lomax , 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Max King, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Angus Crichton , 13. Isaah Yeo (c).
Interchange: 14. Connor Watson , 15. Spencer Leniu, 16. Hudson Young, 17. Stefano Utoikamanu.
Shout out to @randostatsguy on Twitter for these nuggets of Origin trivia.
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Nathan Cleary has done just about everything in rugby league, but he is 0/3 in Origin game 3 and 0/2 in game 3 deciders.
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Josh Papali’i by contrast is 7/8 in game 3.
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Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is the first player in Origin history to be named in three different starting positions in the same series: centre > wing > fullback.
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NSW have lost four of their last five matches with Cleary & Jarome Luai lining up in the halves.
Jack Snape sets the scene for the Origin decider.
This is the first decider at Homebush since 2019, when a last-minute James Tedesco try won the shield for the Blues. But that was only the second NSW victory across five deciders at the Olympic Stadium, a record that undermines the assumed benefit of home crowd support.
So too does last year’s game three at Queensland’s Lang Park home, which was evenly poised midway through the second half before Bradman Best and Mitchell Moses scored the tries to win the shield for the travelling Blues.
Preamble
Jonathan Howcroft
Hello everybody and welcome to live coverage of State of Origin Game 3. Kick-off in the series decider between New South Wales and Queensland at Sydney’s Accor Stadium is scheduled for 8:05pm AEST.
It all comes down to this. A peculiar, error-strewn and injury-affected Origin series will be decided this evening over 80 minutes in the heart of New South Wales. For the third time this year the Blues will run out hot favourites. For the second time in 2025 the Maroons will hope to upset the odds and celebrate Queensland’s latest shield heist.
Billy Slater’s side have only dominated around half-an-hour of the series so far, but they used that time to maximum effect. Between minutes 12 and 38 of game 2 in Perth they converted rare ascendancy into a match-winning 26 points to keep the series alive.
The Blues have been on the front foot for most of the other couple of hours of representative footy, without looking especially fluent. Even so, they ran the Maroons to within two points in Perth despite a 10-2 penalty count against them and kicking just 2/5 conversions.
The star of Queensland’s series-saving victory was Cameron Munster, who shone as his state’s captain for the first time following the axing of Daly Cherry-Evans.
And Munster has been the focus of the build-up to the decider following the news of the death of his father.
Will the Maroons rally around their skipper and produce a result for the ages? Will the Blues belatedly convert their ascendancy into a coherent 80 minute performance? One of the most dramatic nights in Australian sport awaits.
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