Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight for a busy weekend of Premier League action.
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
There should be a bit of needle when Liam Delap returns to Ipswich. He was one of the few shining lights in their relegation campaign but this time he will be the opposition striker the Portman Road crowd are desperate to get under the skin of.
Delap is an emotional player who thrives on playing on the edge. He admitted recently that he performs at his best when he is in the face of opponents, which tells you plenty about his mentality. That aggression can be a huge asset for a striker but it can also leave him vulnerable to losing his cool when the game gets heated.
The numbers back up the angle. During that Ipswich campaign in 2024/25, Delap averaged 2.6 fouls per 90 minutes and was booked 12 times in the Premier League. He has already collected two yellow cards in five starts for Forest this season, suggesting the combative side of his game remains firmly intact.
Referee Thomas Bramall also has history with Delap, having sent him off for two yellow cards in Chelsea’s win at Wolves last season.
Now add the emotional backdrop of facing his former supporters, who will know exactly how to provoke a reaction and Delap to be carded is a fantastic bet at 3/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Liam Delap to be carded (3/1 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Man City, Saturday 12.30pm
I always want to be with Unai Emery’s teams when they are big underdogs at home.
The numbers make a compelling case for doing so again here, with Aston Villa’s record against the Premier League’s elite at Villa Park under Emery bordering on remarkable.
Since the start of the 2023/24 season, Villa have played 13 home games against teams that finished in the top four that season, winning eight, drawing two and losing just three. That is an average of 2.00 points per game – a return that would have generated a £16 profit from £1 level stakes backing Villa to win in each match.
All three of Villa’s home wins over Manchester City in that sample are included in that record.
City’s reputation and their perfect start to this campaign are understandably reflected in the market, but they should not automatically make Villa a team to oppose.
Emery’s side have also found their rhythm after a difficult start to the season, winning at Newcastle in the manner of a well-oiled Emery machine. City arrive with seven league wins from seven but Villa have the tactical intensity, home support and recent head-to-head evidence to make this a much tougher assignment than City’s league record suggests.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Aston Villa double chance (6/5 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Everton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
David Moyes has made Everton a tough team to beat but there is a different challenge when his side have to go away to the Premier League’s big boys. Since taking charge of West Ham for the first time, Moyes has lost 21 of his 22 away matches at Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool. That is a miserable record against the very best and it makes backing Arsenal to get the job done an appealing starting point.
The smarter play, though, is to combine the home win with under 3.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet. Arsenal have developed a seriously reliable habit of winning without games turning into goal-fests. The bet has landed in 12 of their last 14 home matches across the Premier League and Champions League, including each of their last eight on home soil.
That is no coincidence. Mikel Arteta’s side are built to control matches, suffocate opponents and manage the game once they get their noses in front.
Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet is the play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Coventry vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Fulham are creating the sort of attacking numbers that make them a great betting proposition. They are averaging a league-high 33.5 touches in the opposition box per game this season, a figure boosted by the 54 they recorded against Hull at home. But this is not simply a case of one big performance skewing the numbers. There is plenty of substance behind their attacking output.
Only Brighton and Manchester City have generated a higher expected goals figure per 90 minutes from open play than Fulham’s 1.34. That is a significant indicator of the quality of chances they are creating, suggesting this is a side consistently finding ways to threaten opponents rather than relying on scraps or moments of individual brilliance.
At Evens with Sky Bet, I like the look of Fulham scoring at least twice against Coventry.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Fulham to score over 1.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs Tottenham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Feisty one you are.
The last seven meetings between Chelsea and Tottenham have averaged six cards per game, while referee Chris Kavanagh has shown 4.2 cards per 90 minutes since the start of last season. That is the third-highest average of any Premier League referee over that period.
The over 5.5 cards line is understandably short at 20/23 with Sky Bet, but I’d rather take a swing at the player cards market, where Levi Colwill is available at 4/1.
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A look at some of the best goals Spurs have scored against Chelsea over the years.
Why Colwill? James Maddison is one of the Premier League’s most effective card-drawers. Since 2018, he has been responsible for 77 opposition players receiving yellow cards, working out at one every 215 minutes. He has already helped get two opponents booked this season and looks to be rediscovering that mischievous edge to his game, using his close control and quick feet to tempt defenders into rash challenges. Colwill might be next.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Levi Colwill to be carded (4/1 with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Sometimes the best betting angles are the ones that make you feel uncomfortable. Backing a goalless first half when Crystal Palace’s defence has been leaking goals like a sieve certainly falls into that category, but there is a compelling reason to think the market might be looking in the wrong direction.
Palace have conceded two or more goals in 11 of their last 13 Premier League games. The underlying numbers are just as ugly.
But something has to give.
Pierre Sage admitted as much after the 5-0 humiliation against Brighton, saying he needed to change something. Reading between the lines, that could mean a much more conservative approach against Newcastle. Palace surely cannot afford to keep playing so openly, leaving themselves exposed time and again. A no-risk, no-thrills first half might be exactly what the doctor ordered.
That makes 0-0 at half-time an intriguing price at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
And the broader numbers support the idea. Twenty-one of the last 45 Premier League matches have been goalless at the break.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Hull vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Hull’s direct approach, spearheaded by the all-action Oli McBurnie, is creating a particularly interesting trend when it comes to opposition centre-backs.
Centre-backs are averaging 1.5 fouls drawn per 90 minutes against Hull. That makes sense when you consider the way McBurnie competes physically, attacks the ball and makes life uncomfortable for defenders. When a team plays with that level of directness, there are plenty of opportunities for centre-backs to be fouled.
Kristoffer Ajer at 10/11 with Sky Bet to be at least once looks a great candidate to keep this trend ticking over, having already drawn three fouls across his last two games.
We’re backing a pattern that has been established in Hull’s matches, with McBurnie’s style of play providing a logical explanation for why it is happening.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Kristoffer Ajer to be fouled at least once (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Are Brighton genuine Premier League title contenders? It might sound a little premature, but Fabian Hurzeler’s record against the division’s elite demands serious attention.
Since his appointment in 2024, Brighton have collected a league-high 19 points from 13 games against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City.
Across those fixtures, they have scored 20 goals and conceded 17, winning the aggregate scoreline 20-17 against three of the most powerful teams in English football. Jaw-dropping.
Brighton are brave without the ball. They were playing a different sport last weekend against Crystal Palace.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League match between Brighton and Crystal Palace.
Anfield is an intimidating place to visit, of course, and Liverpool’s quality makes this a serious test. But Brighton’s record suggests they should not be priced as outsiders merely because of the badge on the other side.
At 11/8 with Sky Bet, the draw no bet gives us some protection if the teams share the points, while still offering an attractive return if Brighton can pull off another statement result.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Man Utd vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Sunday 25th October 12:30pm
Kick off 2:00pm
Manchester United are strong favourites to win this game. Let that sink in for a moment.
Seven points from their opening seven Premier League games represents their worst start to a top-flight season in 37 years, while they have gone seven matches without a win in all competitions, losing four and drawing three. This is a team struggling to convince anyone that they have the answers, yet the market still wants us to believe they should be trusted to get the job done.
I’m not buying it.
There is a worrying lack of togetherness about United. Bruno Fernandes’ body language has been telling and his post-match comments following the Como game did little to suggest a group pulling in the same direction.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have every reason to travel to Old Trafford believing they can get something. They are unbeaten in their last six meetings with United and have scored 15 goals across those games.
The draw no bet market offers a useful safety net as our stake is returned if the game finishes level while a Bournemouth win lands at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Bournemouth draw no bet (11/8 with Sky Bet)
Sunderland vs Leeds, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
There is a strong case for keeping things simple and taking the biggest price of the three outcomes.
Backing Premier League draws has been a profitable strategy across the last two seasons, returning a very tidy +46 points to £1 level stakes. Of course, past profits do not guarantee future returns but it is a useful reminder that the draw is often overlooked by punters that gravitate towards picking a winner.
Leeds are an especially interesting team to focus on. They have drawn eight of their last 16 Premier League games. That is a significant enough pattern to take seriously when assessing a price of 21/10 with Sky Bet for the draw. Back the bet no-one wants to back.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Jones Knows’ best bets…
- Liam Delap to be carded (3/1 with Sky Bet)
- Aston Villa double chance (6/5 with Sky Bet)
- Fulham to score over 1.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
- Levi Colwill to be carded (4/1 with Sky Bet)
- Kristoffer Ajer to be fouled at least once (10/11 with Sky Bet)
- Bournemouth draw no bet (11/8 with Sky Bet)
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