Disney’s “Moana” is setting sail at the box office once again.
The beloved 2016 animated musical is the latest Disney film to get the live-action treatment. The new take on the film, starring Catherine Laga’aia as Moana and Dwayne Johnson reprising his role as the buff god Maui, has made $4.5 million in previews at the box office.
The film is estimated to open between $60 million to $65 million this weekend, though some projections are softer at around $40 million. An opening on the lower end would leave the tropical film floundering under the weight of its massive $250 million production budget, plus global marketing costs. The international box office could rescue the film, where “Moana” is expected to add another $70 million to $75 million to its haul.
“Moana” could join the likes of Disney’s “Dumbo” remake, which opened to $45 million in 2019, and 2025’s “Snow White” ($42 million), as less successful live-action remakes. On the other end, “Lilo & Stitch,” “The Lion King” and “Beauty and the Beast” all debuted with more than $100 million and became huge hits for the studio.
“Moana’s” preview haul is comparable to “Lightyear’s” $5.2 million and “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire’s” $4.7 million. “Lightyear” ultimately debuted to $50.6 million, while “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire” launched with $45 million.
If “Moana” fails to draw crowds, timing may be a factor. The live-action musical is launching just two years after “Moana 2” became a billion-dollar blockbuster. The sequel, originally conceived as a TV series and turned into a feature film, shattered expectations and opened with $225 million over the Thanksgiving holiday. The original “Moana” was also a hit with $680 million worldwide, after opening with $56 million, when it released in 2016.
Also opening this weekend is “Evil Dead Burn,” the sixth entry in Warner Bros.’ horror franchise. It’s estimated to open with $15 million to $20 million and only cost $20 million to produce. “Evil Dead Burn” nabbed $2.3 million in previews.
Elsewhere, A24 and Olivia Wilde’s “The Invite” is aiming to add $4 million to $5 million when it expands nationwide this weekend. Universal’s “Minions & Monsters,” last week’s box office champ, is expected to collect $17 million to $22 million in its second weekend, and “Toy Story 5” is on track for $18 million to $20 million in its fourth weekend.
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