With more than half of the MLB season in the books, the baseball world has convened in Philadelphia for the annual All-Star festivities. What better time for owners and players to engage in Brotherly Love and figure out how to avoid the widely predicted 2027 labor strife that could cancel next season? Considering the storm clouds gathering, a near-term resolution seems unlikely, so we’d better soak in the season we’re having. How’s that going? Glad you asked.
Not New York’s finest
A year ago Cal Raleigh was tearing up the American League, bashing 38 first-half home runs, setting up a bona fide battle between the Mariners catcher and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge for the MVP award. Today, Raleigh is licking his wounds after an injury-riddled meltdown that some Mariners officials blame on the preseason World Baseball Classic, which “killed him”. Raleigh’s radical reversal is one reason why a Seattle team who reached the AL Championship Series a season ago are underperforming in the West. He has just nine home runs with bottom-barrel slash numbers.
Meanwhile, Judge began the season in his usual Ruthian way, but a stress fracture of his right rib has sidelined the slugger and his timeline for return is unclear. His absence and the annual outage from oft-injured Giancarlo Stanton – it’s his calf now – mean the good vibes in the Bronx have dulled since their sizzling start to the season. The pitching-rich second-place Yankees recently had 13 losses in 17 games, but strung together four straight heading into the break.
Across town, the Mets are suffering through their latest catastrophe. It was just a few months ago that an unnamed Guardian writer picked them to win the World Series. Come July, the team have bottomed out and are flirting with the worst record in baseball, their fanbase rescued only by a distracting Knicks run to the NBA title. With manager Carlos Mendoza put out of his misery last month, the bullseye is on David Stearns, the president of baseball operations credited with tearing up the core of the team and replacing it with a host of oft-injured, out-of-position players who you can’t begin to imagine make up a payroll of more than $300m. Chants of “Pete Alonso” from fans memorializing their dearly departed slugger are the soundtrack of summer amid rapidly emptying seats in Queens. Owner Steve Cohen is sticking with his man. Needless to say, the Mets will be selling at the trade deadline; will Francisco Lindor’s icy relationship with Juan Soto lead to his ousting?
And spare a thought for the reigning AL champions, the last-place Toronto Blue Jays, whose elite star Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s precipitous decline is a thing of major league mystery. Jays manager John Schneider recently accused the team, led by their $500m first baseman, of being “bullied by fastballs” on a west coast trip that saw them blanked for 24 straight innings. At least off-season acquisition Dylan Cease is working out: the Jays’ ace will start the All-Star Game in Philly.
What’s good?
How about the first-place White Sox? That phrase has no ring to it whatsoever after the team lost 324 games over the previous three seasons. Yet here they are, atop the Central Division, in an AL where everyone seems to have a shot to make the postseason. Chi-Town’s second club has a tidy offensive core with Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery and “rookie” Munetaka Murakami combining for 64 homers. Chasing are consistent Cleveland, hanging in the race despite the long-term injury to slugger José Ramírez, and Detroit, who won just six games in May but put together the largest increase in home run hitting from any 33-game span in MLB history and are now in the playoff hunt. Will they hold on to Tarik Skubal? The ace has reportedly hinted to friends that he badly wants to stay in Detroit and thinks they can win the World Series. We’ll see if the Dodgers make the Tigers an offer they can’t refuse.
The Rays are up to their old tricks again, settling into first place in their latest unexpected surge to the top of the AL standings. This time, they’re skating past the Yankees despite hitting 49 fewer home runs while socking the second fewest doubles in the AL. How have the Rays done it? Well, they’ve struck out nearly 250 fewer times than the Bombers, employing mostly station-to-station baseball while nickeling and diming opponents to death.
Meanwhile, in Miami, baseball’s deadest dead-zone has a heartbeat, with many thanks to Otto López, who has become one of the most exciting players in the sport. Not long ago, Marlins fans accustomed to annual sell-offs might have glanced at a player like the once solid-not-spectacular López as a trade asset. But now that he’s broken out into something of an infield Ichiro-type hitter, and the Marlins are in playoff contention, fans are urging ownership to invest rather than divest. He has the most first-half hits in Marlins history and is in position to steal down-ballot MVP votes from the Cubs’ stellar Pete Crow-Armstrong. Will this be the year Miami actually add at the deadline?
The new manager bounce
The Phillies and Red Sox have surged to save their seasons on the backs of new managers. Don Mattingly righted the ship in Philadelphia, replacing the fired Rob Thomson and guiding the club to a 45-24 record. Philly, whose record looks much better than their expected wins total, has been led by their one-two pitching punch of National League All-Star Game starter Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler.
A late first-half surge has completely turned around Boston’s campaign with the team winning nine straight games heading into the break. Craig Breslow, their chief baseball officer, is still universally panned by Red Sox Nation for firing manager Alex Cora and failing to address their offense in the offseason. The question: is this a false dawn for Chad Tracy’s Sox or a legitimate turnaround?
What else is good? The Nationals’ offense! They lead the NL in runs, home runs, stolen bases and total bases. James Wood has 28 homers, 10 of which lead off a game! Imagine if they could pitch, even a little? Only the Rockies have a worse ERA in the NL.
And of course, there’s the Dodgers. Yep: Shohei Ohtani is your NL MVP again and there’s nothing to see here, except his knee is giving him – that’s something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, it’s mid-July and as usual, there’s plenty of daylight between them and second place in the NL West.
Awards
Spare a thought for Crow-Armstrong, who could be NL MVP if only Ohtani didn’t hit and pitch and do everything else. At least we’ll have a new MVP winner in the AL – Yordan Álvarez of the Astros is the overall favorite with 31 homers and an OPS of over 1.000. Dominant Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski should win the Cy Young thanks to his WHIP of 0.757, so long as he isn’t derailed by the arm fatigue that’s keeping him out of the All-Star Game. The AL race is more competitive between Cease in Toronto and the Yanks’ Cam Schlittler.
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