They say that once is an accident, twice is a coincidence and three times is a pattern. After Mikel Arteta’s substitutes proved decisive yet again for Arsenal, we can say with certainty that his ability to change games from his bench is a pattern worth noting.
With Arsenal labouring away at Nottingham Forest and the game drifting towards a goalless draw, Noni Madueke – introduced at half-time – won the game for the visitors, shimmying inside and striking a heavily deflected right-footed shot past Matz Sels. It was hardly a glamorous goal but it secured three valuable Premier League points for Arteta’s side.
It continued a recent trend. In each of their past three Premier League victories, Arsenal have won the game thanks to winning goals by substitutes. Bruno Guimarães provided the decisive contributions against Sunderland (2-0) and Leeds (2-1), before Madueke repeated the trick against Forest.
They are the only goals Arsenal’s substitutes have scored in the league this season. Five teams have scored more goals via their replacements, with Ipswich leading the way on five, but all of Arsenal’s substitute goals have been winners.
The record for the most winning goals scored by substitutes for a team in a single Premier League season stands at six. With three in their opening seven games, if Arsenal maintain their current rate, their subs are on track to score more than 16 winning goals. That would obliterate the record. Clearly, that is not going to happen, but it does show how influential Arsenal’s substitutes have been in changing games so far this season.
Funnily enough, that record of six winning goals thanks to substitutes is held by Arsenal themselves. They hit that tally under Arteta in 2024-25. And therein lies the real pattern. This phenomenon is not confined to just this season – it is an area in which Arsenal have excelled since Arteta joined the club. Since his appointment in December 2019, Arsenal have scored more winning goals from substitutes than any other team. Over the course of the past two seasons, Arsenal substitutes have registered more goals and assists combined than any other Premier League side.
We cannot solely attribute this success to Arteta’s in-game management. When you have been given the resources Arteta has to assemble a squad as deep and strong as Arsenal have, it stands to reason that the players you are able to bring off the bench are players who would probably be starters in most other Premier League teams.
Thirteen different Arsenal substitutes have either scored or assisted a goal across this season and last, more than any other side. Having that quality available inevitably increases the likelihood of substitutes making an impact.
Arsenal’s approach to matches is also a contributing factor. They are comfortable controlling games without necessarily blowing teams away on the scoresheet. They are often happy to remain patient and lean on their exceptional defensive strength, safe in the knowledge they will eventually produce decisive moments in the opponents’ final third.
That approach naturally creates situations in which subs can thrive. A substitute introduced with the game level after an hour has a greater opportunity to score the winning goal than one entering a match that has effectively been settled already.
Close victories have been a hallmark of Arsenal under Arteta. Since his appointment, they have won by a one-goal margin 66 times – at least 13 more times than any other manager.
Nevertheless, we still have to give Arteta a lot of credit. Squad depth clearly helps, but there is undoubtedly a skill in knowing when to turn to your bench and who to bring on. You might argue that Manchester City are the only side with a squad that can rival Arsenal’s in terms of depth – yet they do not appear highly on the lists above.
One noteworthy aspect of Arteta’s management is the speed with which he makes substitutions. He has already made four half-time substitutions in the Premier League this season, a tally exceeded only by Brentford (six) and Aston Villa (five). Guimarães came on at half-time to change the game at Sunderland, and Madueke’s introduction against Forest was the latest example of that proactive approach paying off.
Arteta led the league last season for the number of times the first substitute he made in a game came at half-time (11), while on average he made his first sub after 50.2 minutes in games. That made him the second quickest to act, behind only Enzo Maresca at Chelsea (47.9 minutes).
Arteta has also not always had such a strong squad. Arsenal’s current depth is the result of years of meticulous squad-building and coaching, a process in which he has played a central role.
Perhaps the clearest indication of Arteta’s effectiveness in his use of substitutions comes when comparing him with other managers across Premier League history. Among the 81 managers who have taken charge of at least 100 Premier League matches, his substitutes have scored 12.6% of Arsenal’s goals.
That is the seventh-highest proportion in the competition’s history. And, with the possible exception of Unai Emery, the others above Arteta are less comparable in the sense that they have not had the same resources at their disposal.
For Arteta to be as high on the list as he is, despite the overall number of goals his teams have scored, shows there is more to this than simply having talented players to call upon. He has developed a knack for knowing how to change the game with his substitutes. Perhaps that could be the ace up Arsenal’s sleeve when it comes to deciding where the Premier League trophy resides in May.
This is an article by Opta Analyst
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