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David Purdum
Multiple Authors
The betting market has been set on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza going first to the Las Vegas Raiders in Thursday’s NFL draft for months. But who will be the second pick, a selection owned by the New York Jets, is a different story.
The odds on the second pick have moved dramatically in recent weeks, with bettors and bookmakers trying to figure out the Jets’ plans. On Thursday morning, Texas Tech linebacker David Bailey was a -135 favorite to be the second pick, with Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese listed at +105 at DraftKings. Reese had been the favorite at -400 on Wednesday, and the odds have been flipping almost daily with each report out of the Jets’ camp and each mock draft.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the odds to be the No. 2 pick had attracted more bets and more money than any other draft market. Sportsbook Circa said it received a flurry of bets on Bailey early Tuesday morning that moved him from underdog to favorite in a matter of minutes.
While the odds on the second pick have fluctuated wildly, Mendoza has been a massive favorite to be the top pick since he led the Hoosiers to the national championship in February. Mendoza is a -20,000 favorite to be the top pick at DraftKings, meaning bettors would have risk $20,000 to win $100 on the Indiana quarterback being the first overall selection. Very few bettors have been willing to pay the hefty price to back Mendoza.
“We have seen very minimal action on the first pick,” Joey Feazel, lead football trader at Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN. “Since the national championship, it’s been clear who the Raiders wanted to lead their team for the future.”
Reese was the favorite to be the No. 3 pick Thursday morning at DraftKings, and Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love was the favorite to be the fourth selection.
Jamey Pileggi, who oversees NFL odds for Circa Sports in Las Vegas, called the draft “one of the most unique markets we’re going to offer all year.”
“It’s all news based, not decided on the field,” Pileggi told ESPN. “What’s this guy reporting? What did this GM say at a press conference? What’s the latest mock?”
Pileggi created over/under props on the draft position of roughly 20 players. The over/under on Ty Simpson opened at 32.5, and Pileggi said the market on the Alabama quarterback to go in the first round had attracted two-way action from bettors with the number remaining stable. The over/under on LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier was more volatile and had moved from an opening number of 66.5 to 106.5 at Circa.
“My goal going into the draft every year is to break even,” Pileggi said.
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