2025 Oscars Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Edward Norton as Pete Seeger in ‘A Complete Unknown’
Searchlight Pictures

Best Supporting Actor commentary (Updated Feb. 13, 2025): Kieran Culkin remains the frontrunner for his performance in “A Real Pain,” especially after picking up Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins, along with a slew of other trophies this season. But don’t count out Edward Norton, a four-time Oscar nominee, who’s still a viable threat for “A Complete Unknown.” If Norton is going to play spoiler, it has to happen at BAFTA — since the SAG Awards take place after final Oscar voting closes. Culkin, meanwhile, is heavily favored at SAG, where his strong TV roots give him an edge with the guild’s voter base.

Interestingly, Guy Pearce’s searing work in “The Brutalist” could also make a surprise with a victory at BAFTA, but that seems unlikely given the state of his film.

Then there’s Yura Borisov, the wild card in the race. His nomination for “Anora” comes just as the film surges in momentum, leaving many wondering: Could he pull off a BAFTA upset and flip the script? It’s a long shot, but nothing’s off the table in an unpredictable season.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

Image Credit: Neon

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More Information (Oscars: Best Supporting Actor)

2024 category winner: Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Michael Buckner for Variety

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

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