The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament continues as a loaded Sweet 16 tips off in Houston and San Jose on Thursday.
ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make their predictions for Texas-Purdue, Iowa-Nebraska, Arkansas-Arizona and Illinois-Houston, plus break down the keys for each team to advance.
7:10 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: Purdue, 80-70
Medcalf’s prediction: Purdue, 85-72
How Texas can advance to Elite Eight: Texas has emerged as one of the hottest teams in March, winning three games in five days to go from the First Four to the Sweet 16. Sean Miller has made Matas Vokietaitis an offensive focal point, and the Lithuanian native responded by averaging 20.0 points and 12.5 rebounds in his past two NCAA tournament games. And over his past 12 games, Vokietaitis is averaging 17.6 points and 8.1 rebounds. Purdue has enough size to deal with the 7-foot-1 big man, but the Boilermakers also allowed opponents to shoot better than 56% inside the arc in Big Ten play.
The Longhorns also have to continue their defensive resurgence, which has come out of nowhere after they ranked No. 159 in adjusted defensive efficiency in their final six games before the NCAA tournament. They’re allowing just 1.03 points per possession in three tournament games. The key will be whether that’s enough against Purdue, which is ranked No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Texas has to make sure it doesn’t let Braden Smith dictate the entire game.
0:50
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue game preview
Check out some stats on the matchup between Texas and Purdue in the NCAA men’s tournament.
How Purdue can advance to the Elite Eight: The late-season return to form of Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer has taken Purdue to a different level — and is likely the Boilermakers’ biggest key. Kaufman-Renn had 20 points in the Big Ten tournament title game, 25 in the first-round NCAA tournament against Queens, then went for 19 points and nine rebounds in the second-round win over Miami. Loyer was perfect from 3-point range (4-for-4) against the Hurricanes and is now shooting 19-for-35 from beyond the arc in his last five games.
While Texas’ defense has tightened up recently, it was still ranked in the bottom half of the SEC, while Purdue enters the Sweet 16 with the best offense in the country. Moreover, the Boilermakers rank in the top 10 nationally in 3-point percentage, while the Longhorns are in the bottom third in 3-point defense. If C.J. Cox, who suffered a knee injury and is listed as questionable, can play and make shots alongside Loyer and Kaufman-Renn, Purdue should be able to light up the scoreboard. — Borzello
7:30 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Nebraska, 66-63
Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa, 65-60
How Iowa can advance to the Elite Eight: We have evidence on how Iowa can beat Nebraska (and vice versa). When the Hawkeyes beat the Cornhuskers on Feb. 17, Bennett Stirtz was relatively inefficient but still finished with 25 points in willing Iowa to a win. When the Hawkeyes lost to the Cornhuskers in the regular-season finale, he finished with 11 points on 10 shots. In the NCAA tournament, Stirtz has received plenty of help from his supporting cast, with Alvaro Folgueiras averaging 14.0 in two wins and Tavion Banks scoring 20 against Florida.
Defensively, the Hawkeyes have to avoid fouling. They ranked last in the Big Ten in defensive free throw rate, and there was a noticeable gap in free throw attempts in the two games against Nebraska. When Iowa won, it was plus-6 at the free throw line. When Nebraska won, Iowa was minus-10.
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No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska game preview
Check out some stats on Nebraska’s Sweet 16 matchup with Iowa in the NCAA men’s tournament.
How Nebraska can advance to Elite Eight: Nebraska picked up its first NCAA tournament win in program history last Thursday, then doubled its total in drama-filled fashion Saturday when Vanderbilt’s half-court heave rimmed out. What will the Cornhuskers need to do to win a third — against a team they split the regular-season series with during Big Ten play? Their success all year has been primarily predicated on two factors: 3-point shooting and defense.
They rank top 15 nationally in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempt rate and percentage of points generated off 3-pointers. They have four players who made 50 or more 3s this season, and they’ll likely have to make double-digit 3s to win next week. When they beat Iowa on Feb. 17, they made 10 3s. When they lost, they were 5-for-24. Nebraska led the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding opponents to below 30% from 3-point range and forcing turnovers on nearly 20% of possessions. The Cornhuskers had far more success against Iowa when they forced Stirtz into a tough outing. — Borzello
9:45 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: Arizona, 89-82
Medcalf’s prediction: Arizona, 93-87
How Arkansas can advance to Elite Eight: With his team battling High Point late in the second round, Darius Acuff Jr. never flinched. The projected NBA draft lottery pick finished with 36 points on an efficient 11-for-22 shooting from the field to send Arkansas to its fifth Sweet 16 in six years. The Razorbacks can advance if he can get downhill, draw fouls and create space for his teammates. We saw this blueprint in their win against the Panthers on Saturday. With Acuff drawing multiple defenders, his teammates were able to produce: Malique Ewin (14 points, 12 rebounds) and Billy Richmond III (15 points, 10 rebounds) finished with double-doubles, while Meleek Thomas (19 points) also finished in double-figure scoring.
Acuff has to convince Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd that the Wildcats have no chance against Arkansas if he puts only one defender on him. Still, on defense, Arkansas is up against the deepest team in the NCAA tournament field. Each Razorbacks player has to win individual matchups; Richmond and Trevon Brazile especially will have to match the physicality of an elite Wildcats frontcourt without fouling excessively.
0:59
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Arizona game preview
Check out some stats on Arkansas’ Sweet 16 matchup with Arizona in the NCAA men’s tournament.
How Arizona can advance to the Elite Eight: Arizona can advance with a physically exhausting style that has challenged opponents throughout the season. Utah State cut Arizona’s lead to four points with five minutes to play in Sunday’s second-round meeting — the Wildcats had led by as many as 18 — and staged a serious attempted comeback in the final minutes. But Jaden Bradley drove to the rim and scored, Brayden Burries hit big shots and Arizona got to the free throw line with 22 attempts in the second half. That’s the taxing style that makes most opponents break.
Arizona is relentless. To beat Arkansas, though, its goal must be to stop the best player in this college basketball postseason: Acuff. If Lloyd can devise a defensive game plan against Acuff without sending a lot of help, then his guards can avoid early foul trouble, which could have an impact on the game. But that’s easier said than done. Acuff can make anyone panic, especially in crucial moments down the stretch. Arizona can’t do that if it expects to win. — Myron Medcalf
10:05 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Houston, 74-72
Medcalf’s prediction: Illinois, 77-74
How Illinois can advance to Elite Eight: When Illinois jumped out to a 14-5 start against VCU in the second round, it seemed as if the Illini would enter halftime with a substantial edge — then the Rams slowed the game down and upped their defensive pressure to enter the break down just seven points. Ten minutes into the second half, though, they trailed by 22 points. That’s how quickly the game can turn against Illinois, which owns the best offense in America. That’s the Illini’s advantage against a Houston team prone to extensive scoring droughts.
They already have wins over Tennessee and Nebraska, both top-15 defenses nationally. Houston and its pressure are unique, and the Illini will hit difficult offensive stretches against the Cougars — but Illinois has proven that it never stays cold. When the shots stop falling for Houston, as they have multiple times this season, Illinois will advance if its impeccable offense can extend a lead. Houston isn’t built for comebacks while Illinois is equipped to widen the gap against its opponents. Whenever that opportunity arises against the Cougars, the Illini have to seize it.
0:58
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston game preview
Check out some stats on the matchup between Illinois and Houston in the NCAA men’s tournament.
How Houston can advance to Elite Eight: Their defensive strength is their advantage when they force opponents to play methodically and measured. Texas A&M entered its second-round matchup against Houston having played one of the fastest tempos in America, but the Cougars locked the Aggies into a 65-possession affair and recorded a subpar 87 points per 100 possessions. Houston will have to deploy the same method against Illinois.
Kelvin Sampson will need efficient efforts from star guards Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp. And Joseph Tugler, last season’s Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, has spent the last portion of his campaign as an emerging offensive threat. But to beat the best offense in the country, Houston will have to utilize the same gritty style that has anchored its 7-1 streak in its past eight games. One of the best defensive units in America will have to gain the edge against Illinois, which can turn a trickle of shots into a fire hose. Houston’s defensive strengths will have to be the difference against Brad Underwood’s squad. — Medcalf
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