What are you most looking forward to, on or off the court?
There have been just four women’s Final Fours featuring all No 1 seeds. This year feels like it could give us the fifth. UConn v South Carolina would be a tantalizing rematch of last year’s national championship game – made even more interesting by the fact they didn’t meet in the regular season for the first time since 2014-15. Texas held off a late UCLA comeback when they played in November, but the Bruins have rolled off 25 straight wins since. EB
Circle the date for UConn v South Carolina in the national semi-finals on Friday 3 April. Another titanic showdown between the two dominant programs of the current era – they have accounted for eight of the last 12 national championships – with the Gamecocks out for revenge after last year’s embarrassment and practically assured to go off as firm underdogs. It’s a fixture that’s become appointment viewing even if you’re not a huge basketball fan the same way UConn v Tennessee did in the 90s and 00s. BAG
I am really hoping we get to see Shea Ralph’s Vanderbilt v Geno Auriemma’s UConn in the Elite Eight. I’m also already seated for a potential UCLA v LSU rematch (assuming the latter get through Duke in the Sweet 16). More broadly, I can’t wait to see fans at the games. Women’s basketball just keeps growing in attendance and popularity, and it’s exciting to realize just how many people love the game. SK
If Kim Mulkey’s Tigers can make it to the final Sunday, I’m most looking forward to a rematch between LSU and South Carolina. The tension between these two teams is new, but important in women’s college basketball. Not only was their in-season rivalry heavily commercialized, but it also comes with real lore, especially with transfer portal drama involving MiLaysia Fulwiley leaving South Carolina for LSU. These two teams are very similar in roster strength, coaching and playing style and they’re both highly competitive. TR
Dark horse team to watch
It’s always been hard for another team to break through in the Big East given UConn’s dominance. Jasmine Bascoe and No 10 seed Villanova have made their case. The Canadian sophomore led the Big East in points per game (18.8) and assists (4.8). The Wildcats have nice wins over James Madison and Big 12 champion West Virginia, while their first-round opponents (No 7 seed Texas Tech) enter the tournament having lost three of their past four. EB
Fairfield might not have the power-conference scalps to show for it, but they appear lab-built to make tournament games uncomfortable. The three-time defending MAAC champions spread the floor, shoot freely from deep (more than 11 made three-pointers per game) and rely on collective execution rather than a single star. Cruelly under-seeded at No 11, they’ve drawn a tough opponent in Hannah Hidalgo’s Notre Dame, but don’t be surprised if they spring at least one surprise. BAG
It’s hard to pick just one when there are a few teams who could be disruptive this March. Keep a close eye on Baylor, Princeton and Michigan State. Alabama have also surprised a few people this season, and Mississippi always play a very compelling basketball. Louisville are also coming off a season that’s seen them punch above their weight. SK
LSU. Assigning the dark-horse label to a No 2 seed and recent national champion might be a stretch, but the Tigers have had a hard season and an even harder-to-watch stretch of games prior to March Madness, dropping them to the fifth seed overall. It’s been especially tough to watch as their star player, Flau’jae Johnson, has struggled in her leading role. But while Johnson has been inconsistent for stretches, Mulkey has relied on the addition of Fulwiley, an obvious defensive star, Bella Hines, who is exciting to watch as an offensive player, and Grace Knox, who is not only a big but able to fill multiple roles. TR
The most vulnerable of the top seeds is …
Even though I’ve predicted a Final Four of No 1 seeds, I don’t think UCLA have an easy path to Phoenix. Ivy League champions Princeton are prime to pull an upset of Oklahoma State and could await in the second round. No 3 Duke survived a gauntlet of an early schedule – they faced South Carolina, UCLA and LSU in an eight-day span – to win the ACC and won’t be an easy out for either the Tigers in the Sweet 16 or the Bruins in the Elite Eight. EB
Texas. The Longhorns are elite defensively, but their path is loaded with teams that can stretch the floor and puncture that identity: most notably a likely showdown with No 2 seed Michigan in the Elite Eight. (West Virginia’s own stingy defense in the Sweet 16 will be no slouch, either.) BAG
I am going to go against the grain and say UCLA. I know they’re having an extraordinary season, and I know they’ve vastly improved after last year’s underwhelming Final Four, but I think No 3 seed Duke have a strong shot at beating the Bruins this time around. SK
Texas. The Longhorns have been inching closer toward the conversation of the nation’s most talented rosters. But it seems that when they lose, they lose hard, and often when it matters most. I also think it says something that their coach Vic Schaefer consistently questions their endurance and their ability to connect. He’s even said that looking back on his four-decade career, this is “the softest team” he’s coached in years and that they “have no heart”. TR
One bold prediction
Sarah Strong will take March Madness by storm. (Again.) Is this even that bold? Probably not. But the UConn star’s run of form during the Elite Eight, Final Four and national championship game last year left me in awe: she averaged 22.7 points, 13.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists on 65.9% shooting. (65.9%!) She’s the focal point of UConn’s dynamic offense and nation-leading defense. We’re lucky to get to watch a generational talent at work. EB
West Virginia crash the Final Four, riding the four-headed monster of Gia Cooke, Kierra Wheeler, Jordan Harrison and Sydney Shaw, after knocking out top-seeded Texas in the Sweet 16 and Michigan in the Elite Eight. BAG
Duke will make the Final Four, seeing off LSU then UCLA in the second weekend. The Blue Devils suffered a tough loss to the Bruins in November, but they’re practically a brand new team now and riding the high of winning the ACC Tournament championship. SK
Notre Dame will go past the Sweet 16. Although they had more buzz and a stronger team connection last year – putting them in a better position to reach at least the Final Four – I believe Hannah Hidalgo is the type of player who rises to the moment. She thrives under pressure, especially when she’s overlooked or left out of the conversation, and the sixth-seeded Irish will benefit from it. TR
Who is the face of women’s college basketball now?
JuJu Watkins’s injury just before the tournament last year meant that there was going to be a space to fill in terms of individual, team- and sport-carrying star power this season. I’ve enjoyed watching Vanderbilt’s Mikayla Blakes, Iowa State’s Audi Crooks, UCLA’s Lauren Betts and Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo step into that spotlight. I do think, on and off the court, UConn’s Azzi Fudd is the game’s biggest star right now. She’s the player you’re going to hear about when watching the actual basketball, and she’s also the player you’re going to see when watching many of the ads and content in between the actual basketball. EB
In the absence of a Caitlin Clark-like transcendent star, it’s too close to call between Dawn Staley and Geno Auriemma. It seemed like Staley had managed the impossible feat of toppling Auriemma as women’s college basketball’s Big Boss, but the Connecticut paterfamilias has shown he’s not finished yet (and then some). Both of them have approaches to success, leadership and advocacy that extend beyond wins and titles, shaping the sport’s culture, visibility and direction in ways few coaches ever have. BAG
I’m not entirely sure there is one face. There are a lot of athletes who are changing the game – Olivia Miles, Sarah Strong, Mikayla Blakes, Azzi Fudd, Rori Harmon and Hannah Hidalgo are all among them – but I’m not sure I would describe any of them as the definitive face. SK
Azzi Fudd. While I don’t feel like there’s one standout star like in the past with Paige Bueckers, Caitlin Clark or Angel Reese, the senior guard has grown into that role. The Geico documentary about her and her family showed that she clearly has a story worth telling. She’s also worked her way into the No 1 draft pick conversation, which was not the expectation last year when Lauren Betts was projected to go first, so it’s been interesting to see what’s changed and whether off-the-court factors are influencing that shift. TR
Women’s Final Four
UConn, South Carolina, UCLA, Texas. EB
UConn, South Carolina, LSU, West Virginia. BAG
UConn, South Carolina, Duke, Texas. SK
UConn, South Carolina, UCLA, Texas. TR
The champion will be …
UConn. They’ve got the best player in the country, the best duo in the country, the best coach in the country, the best pedigree in March. No other team have figured them out this season, and I don’t think any will over the next few weeks. (An Elite Eight matchup against No 2 Vanderbilt, Blakes and their former star-turned-assistant Shea Ralph should still give us one of the best games of March Madness.) The Huskies will become the 10th undefeated champions in women’s tournament history and have a lot of fun while doing it. EB
UConn. The Huskies don’t rely on a single star and that’s exactly why they’ll cut down the nets in Phoenix. Geno has built something more durable: shared accountability, constant communication and a deep roster of players comfortable stepping forward when the moment calls. Strong leads the nation in win shares and gives them the game’s most reliable matchup edge, Fudd’s shot-making steadies everything and a supporting cast led by Wisconsin transfer Serah Williams’ defensive presence fills every gap. They defend without fouling, score without forcing and never seem rattled. In a tournament defined by pressure, UConn’s collective leadership feels like the ultimate trump card. BAG
UConn. To be perfectly honest, I don’t think there’s another team in the field that can take down the Huskies at this point in the season. They’re coming into the tournament on a 50-game winning streak and as the defending champions with nary a concern in sight. Auriemma has coached the team to near-perfection, while the rest of the field is still hard-pressed to find a way to contain Strong and Fudd. The Huskies also have a penchant for cinema. Should they pull off a repeat championship win, it’d mark their first back-to-back since the final title of their four-peat in the 2015-16 season – exactly 10 years ago. SK
UConn. I really see this team and what they’ve built as unmovable. I also think they’re coming off a high from last year’s win that has only help fuel the desire to win it all this season. They’re a strong, organized and connected team. Without Paige Bueckers this year, they may lack some discipline and passion, but I still think they’re in great hands, especially with Strong taking on more of a leadership role. I am curious to see how they will play without a dominant big, as Jana El Alfy has seen her playing time reduced playing time. But overall, UConn didn’t lose a game in the regular season – and I don’t think they’ll lose in the postseason either. TR
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