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Jay Bilas
Multiple Authors
You already know the drill. After my fellow analysts and I have the privilege of calling the SEC championship game in Nashville, Tennessee, we move swiftly to process the men’s NCAA tournament field as it is revealed. Our bosses at ESPN ask us each to fill out a bracket — while we are on the air — so we can reveal our picks before the end of the show.
They give us less than five minutes. Hardly ideal, but perhaps our first instincts are better than considered thought. I decided that I would give you more than five minutes so you can dazzle your friends and win your office pool — and perhaps our Tournament Challenge.
Last season, my bracket was chalky: I had all four No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four, Houston and Florida advancing to the championship game, and the Gators cutting down the nets. The backlash was swift and unrelenting. I was criticized for not picking an underdog to reach San Antonio. But when the dust cleared, all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four, and the Cougars and Gators battled it out for the title. You’re welcome — and I forgive you. All of you.
This season is different. Cinderella just took a year off. The top teams aren’t so much better than the rest of the field, so there will be more surprises. Though picking a bunch of upsets might make you feel good when filling out the bracket, it is a much better feeling to be strategic and win. Pick only the upsets you feel strongly about, the ones you know the winner will lose in the next game. This strategy allows you the upside of early upsets, while limiting the downside if Cinderella’s slipper doesn’t fit later in the tournament.
Here are my best guesses for the bracket. Use your best judgment. And remember: This is supposed to be fun.
EAST REGION
First round
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 16 Siena Saints
The 1-vs.-16 matchup has featured two amazing upsets, when UMBC beat Virginia in 2018 and FDU beat Purdue in 2023. But two wins since the field expanded in 1985 aren’t great odds for Siena. As a rule, take the No. 1 seed. This game matches two coaches who won national championships as players — Jon Scheyer and Gerry McNamara. The difference? Duke has Cameron Boozer.
Winner: Duke
No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs
The Buckeyes have Bruce Thornton, Ohio State’s all-time leading scorer and a respected player across the country. TCU has David Punch, who scored a season-high 26 points against Oklahoma State in this week’s Big 12 quarterfinals. This is an underrated team, one that beat Florida early in the season. The 8-9 matchup is a coin flip, but I am taking TCU.
Winner: TCU
No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers
There is usually an upset alert in the 5-vs.-12 game, but St. John’s is too strong — and Rick Pitino does not often lose first-round games. The Red Storm are underseeded. Take the Johnnies.
Winner: St. John’s
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 California Baptist Lancers
Kansas was awful in its Big 12 tournament loss to Houston — the Jayhawks’ 47 points were by far their fewest of the season. Regardless, they should win this game thanks to Flory Bidunga protecting the rim.
Winner: Kansas
No. 6 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 11 South Florida Bulls
One thing is for sure in this game: There will be a lot of long rebounds because both teams like to shoot 3s. This is a great upset pick: Mikel Brown Jr. has been out because of a sore back, and South Florida is tough. It’s worth rolling the dice on this one because Michigan State will likely beat either team.
Winner: South Florida
No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 14 North Dakota State Bison
The months go: January, February, Tom Izzo. Take the Spartans.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 7 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 10 UCF Knights
The Bruins have Donovan Dent, one of the five best point guards in the nation, but UCF has Themus Fulks, Jordan Burks and the Big 12’s version of Draymond Green in Jamichael Stillwell. With UCLA banged up, the Knights are worth a flier.
Winner: UCF
No. 2 UConn Huskies vs. No. 15 Furman Paladins
Though the Huskies have not been as dominant as many expected this season, this is still a really good team. Furman’s Alex Wilkins has been one of the best freshmen in the country, but UConn’s interior should be the difference.
Winner: UConn
Second round
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 9 TCU
Even banged up, Duke should win, although TCU should be a really tough out. Could the Blue Devils lose? Yes. Still, take them — a lot of brackets will be busted, so the rest of your choices will carry you.
Winner: Duke
1:29
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Jay Bilas, Jay Williams and Seth Greenberg examine potential roadblocks for Duke in the East Region.
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 5 St. John’s
Though Kansas can beat anyone, the Jayhawks can also lose to just about anyone. And St. John’s isn’t just anyone.
Winner: St. John’s
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 11 South Florida
As we established earlier, I trust Michigan State in March. Jeremy Fears Jr. is the difference — and he’s coming into the tournament hot, having scored 20-plus points in each of his past four games.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 10 UCF
I don’t have UConn as a Final Four team this year, but the Huskies are a second-weekend team.
Winner: UConn
Sweet 16
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 St. John’s
This one will depend on Duke’s health. If Patrick Ngongba II is healthy, the Blue Devils win. If not, that lowers Duke’s ceiling — and the Johnnies can absolutely prevail. Still, unless you went to St. John’s, take Duke in this one.
Winner: Duke
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Michigan State
Both teams are experienced and worthy of the Elite Eight. But the Huskies are coming into the tournament cold after a loss in their regular-season finale to Marquette and then a rout by St. John’s in the Big East final. I like Michigan State’s draw, and the fight the Spartans show — they’ve beaten No. 5 Illinois and No. 8 Purdue in the past six weeks, and played tough against Michigan twice.
Winner: Michigan State
Elite Eight
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 3 Michigan State
These two played in East Lansing earlier this season, with Duke winning 66-60. Michigan State has a great chance to avenge that loss. The Blue Devils would win a seven-game series, but this is only one. Go with Green.
Winner: Michigan State
SOUTH REGION
First round
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M / Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Florida is too big and strong inside for an upset here. Take the Gators. Chomp, chomp.
Winner: Florida
No. 8 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes
The Tigers are big and well-coached, but the Hawkeyes have Bennett Stirtz, one of the best shotmakers in college basketball who is averaging 20.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists. Take Iowa. Neither beats Florida, anyway.
Winner: Iowa
No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
This 5 vs. 12 matchup is always a trendy upset pick — and then-No. 12 McNeese beat Clemson last year. But in this case, Vanderbilt’s guards, Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, are too good for a Cowboys upset. Take Vandy.
Winner: Vanderbilt
No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. No. 13 Troy Trojans
The Trojans won at San Diego State and lost in triple overtime at USC. Troy can play. And though Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game, this year ends that drought.
Winner: Nebraska
No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 11 VCU Rams
This is a scary game for the Tar Heels. Without Caleb Wilson, they have a lower ceiling. North Carolina is better, and should win. But VCU is a fair upset pick here.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 14 Pennsylvania Quakers
The Quakers have TJ Power, who had 44 points against Yale in a magnificent performance. But this Illinois team is very talented, especially on the offensive end — and after all, the Illini’s freshman phenom, Keaton Wagler, topped that mark with 46 points against Purdue in January. Illinois wins.
Winner: Illinois
No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies
Talk about a contrast in styles. Texas A&M under Bucky McMillan, the Aggies want to get up and down the floor, they want to press, they want to be annoying. But Saint Mary’s is going to be a problem to play against. It seems different to take Saint Mary’s here and call it chalk, but the Gaels will slow the game down.
Winner: Saint Mary’s
No. 2 Houston Cougars vs. No. 15 Idaho Vandals
The Cougars have Kingston Flemings, one of the best freshmen in the country and a certain lottery pick. Houston’s defense is too good for an upset pick here.
Winner: Houston
Second round
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 9 Iowa
Florida has, arguably, the best frontcourt in the nation, featuring Thomas Haugh (an SEC Player of the Year contender), Rueben Chinyelu, an elite defender and Alex Condon. Size matters. With a big game from Stirtz, Iowa could certainly win this game, but I favor Florida.
Winner: Florida
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt
This is a great matchup. Nebraska can beat almost anyone, but Vanderbilt’s guards will be the difference. It’s a close call, but take Duke Miles’ Commodores. He made a steal in the SEC final on Sunday at midcourt against Arkansas with his left hand that I thought was one of the best steals I’ve seen all season long. He’s legit.
Winner: Vanderbilt
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 6 North Carolina
Illinois can make life difficult for North Carolina, who will be relying on Henri Veesaar (16.7 points per game) in Wilson’s absence. With Wagler leading a group of five Illini averaging double-digits, Illinois just has too many scorers.
Winner: Illinois
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s
Houston can play against fast or slow teams — and can match Saint Mary’s physical, slower pace. The Gaels can win, especially if the Cougars shoot poorly, but I favor Houston.
Winner: Houston
Sweet 16
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt
In a rematch of the SEC tournament semifinals, this time Florida will have a little extra motivation. The Gators turned it over too much in that game against Vanderbilt’s pressure and steal-happy guards, Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles. Despite the Commodores’ talent there, Florida is bigger and stronger. Vandy will score, but Florida will be out for payback.
Winner: Florida
1:19
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Seth Greenberg and Jay Bilas break down top-seed Florida’s path in the South Region, with a potential rematch against Vanderbilt in the Sweet 16.
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 3 Illinois
Illinois has the better offense, and Houston has the better defense. I am taking offense in this one, but it’s an agonizing choice. Take the Illini, but understand the Cougars are fully capable of winning.
Winner: Illinois
Elite Eight
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 3 Illinois
If the adage goes that guards win in March, well, Illinois has better guards. Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell will be the difference, even as Florida is better inside and on the glass. I am taking the Illini because they can rain down 3s over the Gators’ big men.
Winner: Illinois
WEST REGION
First round
No. 1 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 16 Long Island University Sharks
The Sharks are coached by Rod Strickland, one of the best point guards in college hoop history, but he cannot play in this one. Arizona is too good, and remember: The 16-seed wins less than 1% of the time.
Winner: Arizona
No. 8 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 9 Utah State Aggies
There is no such thing as an upset in the 8-9 game, but Utah State winning would feel like one. Mason Falslev is the Mountain West Player of the Year and MJ Collins Jr. is a good 3-point shooter. This is a coin flip, but take Utah State. Either team is likely to lose to Arizona in the next round.
Winner: Utah State
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 High Point Panthers
High Point can really score and has had a great year, but Wisconsin is the pick here. The Badgers have really good guards in Nick Boyd and John Blackwell — and in fact this team can provide a tough matchup for Arizona down the line.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 13 Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
The Rainbow Warriors can slow the game down against the Razorbacks, but Arkansas freshman Darius Acuff Jr. is the type of player who can carry a team to a Final Four. This is a tempting upset pick, but I am going with Arkansas.
Winner: Arkansas
No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns/NC State Wolfpack
I like Texas to beat NC State because the Longhorns have size and good guards and wings. BYU has the nation’s leading scorer in AJ Dybantsa, but the Cougars can struggle to score beyond him and Robert Wright III. BYU isn’t the same team it was earlier in the year, and I think its seed reflects what it was earlier in the year rather than late. I’m taking a flier on Texas here.
Winner: Texas
No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State Owls
History tells us Gonzaga will advance — the Bulldogs haven’t lost before the second round since 2008. Coach Mark Few lives in the Sweet 16.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 7 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 10 Missouri Tigers
Miami has had a great season — no team improved more year-over-year than the Hurricanes, who picked up 18 more wins — but I like Missouri in this one, led by Mark Mitchell’s 18.3 points per game. This is a coin flip, so take the upset pick.
Winner: Missouri
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 15 Queens University Royals
Queens, in its first NCAA tournament appearance, brings six players averaging double-figure scoring — but Purdue, coming off a Big Ten title and win in its rematch against Michigan in the final, is finally playing like the team we imagined at the start of the year. Braden Smith is the best point guard in the country. Purdue wins.
Winner: Purdue
Second round
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 9 Utah State
Whether it is against Villanova or Utah State, Arizona is too big and talented to lose before the second weekend. The Wildcats have four wins against top-10 opponents in just the past month and seem to be picking up steam — they haven’t lost since Feb. 14. Utah State is a tough out, but Arizona advances.
Winner: Arizona
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 5 Wisconsin
Wisconsin has good shooting big men who can make things challenging for Arkansas — in fact, I think the Badgers present a tough challenge for Arizona if they get to the second weekend. They can rain down 15 3s in a game — that’s what they did to Michigan. But the Razorbacks have Darius Acuff Jr., and nobody else does.
Winner: Arkansas
0:41
Can Darius Acuff Jr. carry Arkansas to a national title?
Jay Bilas wonders if freshman Darius Acuff Jr. is talented enough to lead Arkansas out of the West Region and into the Final Four.
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 Texas
The Zags are playing without Braden Huff — and his 17.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game — which limits their offense and defense. Gonzaga is the better team, but consider taking a flier here. Texas is a sneaky 11-seed because of its size, Dailyn Swain’s ability to score and Sean Miller’s coaching chops.
Winner: Texas
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 10 Missouri
The Boilermakers can give pause, but they’ve got a decent draw, and Braden Smith is the separator. He’s averaging 9.0 assists per game (second in the country) and is shooting at the best clip of his career.
Winner: Purdue
Sweet 16
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas
Darius Acuff Jr, meet Koa Peat. Two of the best freshmen in the country would face off in this matchup, featuring two first-round NBA draft talents. Acuff is the bigger star. He’s gravity: He pulls defenders to him and then he kicks it out. But Arizona is more talented all-around, and the Wildcats escape from this challenging matchup.
Winner: Arizona
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 11 Texas
The Longhorns have size and talent, but Purdue will win this game.
Winner: Purdue
Elite Eight
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 2 Purdue
While very young at key spots, Arizona is simply bigger and more talented. Purdue is more experienced and will not be afraid of Arizona. But I love the Wildcats here.
Winner: Arizona
MIDWEST REGION
First round
No. 1 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 16 UMBC Retrievers/Howard Bison
Michigan lost L.J. Cason for the season a few weeks ago, which certainly limits the trajectory of the season for the Wolverines. But not yet. Again: 16-seeds are not good bracket choices. Even if the nearly impossible happens, the 16-seed is very likely to lose the next game.
Winner: Michigan
No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Saint Louis Billikens
Saint Louis hunts great shots and runs a beautiful offense. Georgia has better athletes — sophomore Jeremiah Wilkinson averages 17.0 points per game — and can beat Saint Louis in transition.
Winner: Georgia
No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 12 Akron Zips
There’s an argument to be made that Akron had a better résumé than Miami (Ohio) — and maybe was even the better team, even though the RedHawks won the one head-to-head meeting. The Zips are legit, and they’re going to be a tough out. But if Christian Anderson is healthy and can find Donovan Atwell, one of the best shooters in American, for open shots, Texas Tech takes this one.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 13 Hofstra Pride
The Crimson Tide will have the best player on the floor in Labaron Philon Jr. (21.7 PPG), who had 28 points on 56% shooting in the SEC quarterfinal loss to Ole Miss. Nate Oats also has Aden Holloway, who is a wizard in pick-and-roll situations.
Winner: Alabama
No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks/SMU Mustangs
Miami (Ohio) is really good. So is SMU — and the Mustangs are finally getting healthy and have better talent. That matters. Take SMU in the First Four, but neither will get past Tennessee in the first round. Ja’Kobi Gillespie has been a great addition to that team, and as long as the Vols play with the kind of defensive intensity that they usually do under coach Rick Barnes, I think they get past either team.
Winner: Tennessee
1:45
Why Jay Bilas believes Miami (OH) should’ve avoided the First Four
Jay Bilas doesn’t agree with Miami (OH) needing to play in the First Four in the Midwest region.
No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 14 Wright State Raiders
Virginia is underrated and a very good defensive team, allowing just 68.4 points per game (top 50 in the country, fourth in the ACC). The Wahoos send Wright State home early on the back of standout freshman Thijs De Ridder, freshman forward from Belgium.
Winner: Virginia
No. 7 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 10 Santa Clara Broncos
Kentucky is banged up and inconsistent, and Santa Clara is big, skilled and has positional size at almost every position. To be clear: Kentucky could very well get upset here. I’m picking the Wildcats, though, assuming Otega Oweh has another big game.
Winner: Kentucky
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 Tennessee State Tigers
The Cyclones are among the nation’s best defensive teams, scoring almost 20 points per game off turnovers. The only pause you should have here is Iowa State’s inconsistent free throw shooting. Everything else is Final Four quality.
Winner: Iowa State
Second round
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 8 Georgia
The Bulldogs have played and beaten some great teams — but none as good as Michigan. Yaxel Lendeborg is a legit star. one of the best two-way stars in the country. He and the Wolverines will not lose here.
Winner: Michigan
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
The Crimson Tide do not defend at the highest level, but they can really shoot it. Philon is a dude, but so is Holloway, Latrell Wrightsell and Amare Allen. They’ve got a bunch of guys who can score. The shotmaking Alabama team takes it.
Winner: Alabama
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 6 Tennessee
Virginia can protect the paint and the 3-point line, but Tennessee is physical and pounds the offensive glass. The Vols better with Nate Ament in the lineup, and he returned for the SEC tournament. If he can approach his season averages of 17.5 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, alongside Gillespie’s talent, they should take it.
Winner: Tennessee
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 7 Kentucky
Kentucky is wounded and a bit worn down. Iowa State has Joshua Jefferson, one of the most versatile and talented point forwards in the game — who happens to be averaging career highs in points (16.9), rebounds (7.6) and assists (4.9) as a sophomore. Advance Iowa State.
Winner: Iowa State
Sweet 16
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama
I think Michigan is clearly the best team in this region, but if I’m the Wolverines, Alabama is the one team I wouldn’t want to play. If Alabama makes shots, the Crimson Tide can beat Michigan. Hell, if Alabama hits shots, the Crimson Tide can beat anyone. That said, I go with Lendeborg. Advance Michigan in your bracket. I already have.
Winner: Michigan
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Tennessee
Coach Rick Barnes’ Volunteers are always standouts on defense, but here, they meet their match. The Cyclones are one of the five best defensive teams in the nation. If they can force Tennessee into turnovers — the Vols have not been great at taking care of the basketball late — they’ll win this game. Iowa State is the real deal.
Winner: Iowa State
Elite Eight
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 2 Iowa State
If L.J. Cason were available, I would take Michigan in this game. But Iowa State is just too good on the defensive end. The Cyclones are the best team in this region, and they’ll get it done here.
Winner: Iowa State
FINAL FOUR
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Illinois
Apparently I like surly coaches — maybe that’s why I’m going with Brad Underwood and Tom Izzo. These two are going to prepare their teams well, and it will be a great matchup of the nation’s best offense in Illinois and a top-10 defense in Michigan State. Izzo hasn’t been to the national championship game since his squad won in 2000 — that changes this year.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Arizona hasn’t been to the Final Four since 2001, but coach Tommy Lloyd won’t be satisfied with just that. This Arizona team is good enough to compete for a national title, and it gets it done against Iowa State.
Winner: Arizona
National Championship
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 3 Michigan State
In the battle of droughts, the West will be won: Arizona wins its first championship in nearly 20 years.
Winner: Arizona
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