Key events
Permutations time – yes, it’s why we’re all here! Three teams can win the Six Nations today. Here’s the top three:
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1. France W 3, L 1, BP 4, PD +79, Pts 16
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2. Scotland W 3, L 1, BP 4, PD +21, Pts 16
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3. Ireland W 3, L 1, BP 2, PD +16, Pts 14
Now, I’m not really going to do a permutations deep dive (you can read the full variables here). The bonus-point situation makes it complex.
The only calculation Ireland and Scotland need today: win. Then, if you do that and claim the Triple Crown, hope England do you a favour against France. The extent of that favour depends on whether Ireland and Scotland win; if they get a bonus point, etc. But clarity of thought is vital. Just. Win.
Luke McLaughlin
A first Six Nations title is tantalisingly within reach – but Scotland are likely to face a familiar problem in Dublin. It doesn’t matter how good your backline is, or how well rehearsed your strike moves are if possession is cut off at source.
France were curiously lacklustre in defence at Murrayfield but Andy Farrell, the Ireland head coach, has reverted to the same selection as for England at Twickenham. We know how that turned out, and no team has suffered more in the face of Ireland’s considerable power than Scotland.
Ireland’s back row – particularly the captain Caelan Doris – were at their destructive best against England. If they can raise their collective intensity to similar levels, it will be a very difficult day for the visitors.
But Scotland’s captain, Sione Tuipulotu, explained on Friday why he believes this could be different. “I’ve come to the Aviva in the past where maybe it seemed a little bit more like hope [than expectation],” he said.
“Where our strength comes from as a team is the hard stuff we’ve been through. To be resilient in those times is what gives me the most confidence that we’ll be the best version of ourselves.”
So it’s three Scotland changes in Gregor Townsend’s starting XV. Zander Fagerson comes in at tighthead prop but, as mentioned, it’s the enforced all-new second row that Ireland may look to target – a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Williamson and Gilchrist.
For Ireland, Andy Farrell has made four swaps to his XV with hooker Dan Sheehan, lock Joe McCarthy and openside flanker Josh van der Flier returning to the forward pack. Tommy O’Brien is picked ahead of Jacob Stockdale on the left wing.
Next, I’m going to give you time to read Luke McLaughlin’s richly written preview before kick-off.
The teams
Ireland: Jamie Osborne; Rob Baloucoune, Garry Ringrose, Stuart McCloskey, Tommy O’Brien; Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Tom O’Toole, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne; Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Michael Milne, Finlay Bealham, Darragh Murray, Nick Timoney, Craig Casey, Ciarán Frawley, Bundee Aki
Scotland: Blair Kinghorn; Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu (capt), Kyle Steyn; Finn Russell, Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson; Max Williamson, Grant Gilchrist; Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey.
Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, D’Arcy Rae, Alex Craig, Magnus Bradbury, George Horne, Kyle Rowe, Tom Jordan.
Referee: Luke Pearce (Eng)
Preamble
Welcome to the start of Super Saturday! And a mouthwatering match between two teams with a chance of claiming the Six Nations title and both riding three-game winning streaks. Scotland are the talk of the tournament after putting seven tries on France, coming out on top of a 90-point thriller at Murrayfield. But this is Ireland, Scotland’s jinx side, in Dublin.
Scotland have lost their past 11 games against Ireland and last won away from home in 2010 (at Croke Park, rather than the Aviva Stadium). Yet Gregor Townsend’s side are reinvigorated and playing without fear. Who’d have thought a team that lost to Italy in round one would now be second in the table – level on points with leaders France – and playing for the Triple Crown and possibly the Six Nations championship this afternoon?
To counter soaring Scots’ optimism: the cold, hard reality of Ireland. While the Scottish side excelled in a wide-open game against Les Bleus, Irish physicality is something they have struggled with. And this is not the same side that dismantled the French, it’s an all-new second row with the injured duo Gregor Brown and Scott Cummings replaced by Max Williamson and Grant Gilchrist. That is a tough break for the visitors.
Andy Farrell might be low-key happy (is he any other kind of happy?) that the focus was all on Scotland’s brilliance after round four. He is a master at motivating his players and can remind them that, for all that it’s been so-so Six Nations by Ireland’s high standards – aside from routing England at Twickenham – they stand just one win away from potentially lifting the trophy.
On that score, to add to today’s fun, we’ll have the unique experience of the winner of this game – providing there is one – fervently cheering on England as they look to stun France in Paris. But that’s for later. First up, it’s Ireland v Scotland – kick-off is at 2.10pm GMT.
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