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Liz Loza
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Liz Loza
ESPN Writer
- Liz Loza is a writer for fantasy football, women’s basketball and betting at ESPN. Liz also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and contributes to the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.
Multiple Authors
In between the Super Bowl and NCAA tournament — two American sports institutions that have become pillars of the legal sports betting industry — another foundational cultural competition takes the spotlight. The Academy Awards might not be the typical betting event of the year, but it’s one that presents an intriguing challenge to bettors while celebrating a historic art form.
Although it doesn’t play out the same way a football or basketball game would, the Academy Awards offer dramatic competition that is tremendous fodder for bettors. Amid the ever-increasing pervasiveness of betting (especially with the normalization of wagering on events outside of sports), Oscars betting has become more relevant than ever.
DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello said last year that his trading team relies on trade publications like GoldDerby, which specializes in tracking and predicting entertainment awards shows, to make the odds for the Oscars. He told ESPN ahead of this year’s ceremony (7 p.m. ET Sunday, ABC and Hulu) that one added factor is the continued emergence of prediction markets, which are perhaps more in tune with non-sports-related wagering and rely more closely on the movement of markets.
As opposed to traditional online sportsbooks that are permitted to offer Academy Awards betting only in the U.S., prediction markets have a wider reach, offering Oscars betting in any state where it’s allowed. Prediction market platform Polymarket extended its influence when it showed live event contracts during the Golden Globes broadcast in January.
Either way, Avello expressed that the odds his book produces and the contract prices that end up on prediction markets are roughly the same.
“The favorites are still the favorites, but it’s a different approach to the way that you’re selecting your choice,” he told ESPN.
Unlike conventional sports, there is no way for the Oscar nominees to directly compete with each other, nor is there any objective measure of which nominee was truly the “best.” Instead, the nominees in each category have to make their case to the Academy voting body composed of 10,000 to 11,000 members through campaigning, which has become increasingly notorious.
Debra Birnbaum, the editor-in-chief of GoldDerby, notes that “in the ideal world, the best film would win and the best performances would win.”
“Think about a political campaign, think about any kind of campaign. Does the best candidate always win?” Birnbaum told ESPN. “Everything is about the message. We live in a world where things exist around you and nothing exists in a vacuum. So headlines, storylines, narratives, what’s happening in the real world, all of that adds up to and exists in and around all of the things you’re voting for.”
The process begins early, with the Cannes Film Festival marking the unofficial beginning of the season in May, and bookmakers often follow suit by putting up odds up to a year in advance. The market shifts throughout the year, with the biggest catalysts for movement being other major award shows or “precursor awards,” per Birnbaum, who is a voter for the Critics Choice Awards.
Other awards that determine the Oscars favorites include the various guild award shows, the Golden Globes and the BAFTA Awards, which may have inadvertently played a critical role in this year’s race. At the 2026 BAFTAs, where “I Swear,” a film about a man with Tourette’s syndrome, was up for several awards, the movie’s real-life subject had a tic and shouted a racial slur while Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo from “Sinners” were on stage.
Taking account of the narratives that exist outside the films themselves, Birnbaum believes that the BAFTAs incident could have had an impact on the late surge of “Sinners” in awards season. The voting for the Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards) remained open until after the BAFTAs ceremony and, at the Actor Awards, “Sinners” won the coveted Best Ensemble award, with Jordan pulling a huge upset when he defeated Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”) for Best Actor.
The Oscars voting period did not close until March 5, four days after the Actor Awards, and Avello and Birnbaum both believe that the momentum has shifted in Jordan’s favor, especially given the raucous reception he got at the Actor Awards.
The betting markets agree. Before the Actor Awards, Jordan was a +800 underdog for Best Actor, but he shifted to +130 shortly after the show and was a big -200 favorite as of Thursday. Chalamet went from -125 to +185 over that same period, according to DraftKings. Avello notes that Jordan winning the Oscar would be a loss for the sportsbook, given that some bettors had taken him even before the Actor Awards.
“I love this kind of race,” said Birnbaum. “All respect to the ones that have come in and swept when there’s been every precursor, when they’ve won every award, but … it’s kind of boring to cover it when you know every winner’s a foregone conclusion. This makes it that much more exciting.”
“Sinners,” another highly successful collaboration between Jordan and director Ryan Coogler, was nominated for a record 16 Academy Awards this year. It will face off against director Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” in 11 of those categories, a record for the most head-to-head competitions in one Oscars ceremony, according to The Hollywood Reporter.
Leonardo DiCaprio (12-1) is an underdog to Jordan for Best Actor, and Coogler (+800) pulling off the upset against Anderson (-2500) for Best Director would surely be one of the biggest shocks of the night. But along with most of the betting world, they will have their eyes on the biggest prize of the night: Best Picture.
According to data from BetMGM, Best Picture is by far the most-bet category of the show, racking up twice as many tickets as the next closest award, Best Actor.
“One Battle After Another” opened as the favorite for Best Picture and, despite historical precedent and relative parity across many of the other categories, has maintained that status the entire time, showing -400 odds as of Thursday. “Sinners” checks in at +275, well ahead of the next closest, “Hamnet,” at 20-1.
“Even though it’s a [big] favorite, I still think [‘One Battle After Another’ is] a little bit vulnerable because ‘Sinners’ has had a pretty good push lately and has had some success,” Avello said. “So I don’t think that ‘One Battle’ is all that locked in.”
Despite the late movement, “One Battle After Another” does have many of the precursors working in its favor, including the top prizes at the Directors Guild of America and Producers Guild Awards, two of the historically strongest indicators for Best Picture winners.
Jessie Buckley is the largest favorite in the six major categories, as she’s -3500 at DraftKings to win Best Actress for her role in “Hamnet.” Other than that, the acting categories are reasonably close this year by the odds.
In the Best Supporting Actor category, Benicio Del Toro (“One Battle After Another”) and Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”) notched some early awards show wins, but they have actually fallen to the bottom of the odds board at 20-1 and 25-1, respectively. For a time, it looked as though Stellan Skarsgard of “Sentimental Value” was going to take the award, but Sean Penn of “One Battle After Another” came on strong at the end and is the favorite at -350 on DraftKings.
It’s really anyone’s guess as to how Best Supporting Actress is going to go. Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”), Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) and Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) took turns winning the various precursors, with Madigan’s Actor Awards win propelling her to +100 favorite status. The chalk has won this award every year since 2009.
“This year, at least some of the majors are very competitive,” said Avello. “There’s going to be an upset, I can tell you that, and maybe more than one. There’s no way that this goes with all these favorites winning. I just don’t see that.”
Here are some of the more interesting storylines to follow in the “below-the-line” categories:
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For the first time since the Academy added Best Animated Feature in 2002, there will be a new category at the Oscars: Best Casting. “Sinners” (-400) and “One Battle After Another” (+300) predictably lead the way, but Avello notes that some bettors did take a flier on “Marty Supreme” at 16-1.
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Speaking of animated films, there is a palpable buzz around “KPop Demon Hunters,” which is the heavy favorite in two awards categories: Best Animated Feature (-1800) and Best Original Song (-900). The film’s hit song “Golden” will face its primary competition from “I Lied To You” from “Sinners” (+450), and both songs will be performed Sunday night.
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Birnbaum mentions that international representation has continually increased in recent years and the consensus around this year’s Best International Feature category is that it’s one of the strongest of all time. The category’s two favorites, “Sentimental Value” (-250) and “The Secret Agent” (+175), were also nominated for Best Picture.
— Doug Greenberg
Liz Loza’s guide to making your picks
ESPN Fantasy has partnered with ABC and the Academy to create a free-to-play Oscars pick’em game. That means you, donning your coziest sweats and from the comfort of your sofa, have the chance to predict which stars will go home with Tinseltown’s most coveted bachelor.
So while the screen is silver and the statue gold, the cash remains (ever) green. Below are six picks to get you started on building action of your own.
Best Picture: “One Battle After Another”
A political action-thriller directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” is the front-runner. The film has been recognized by the Academy in 13 categories, including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, with acting nominations for Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn and Teyana Taylor.
A complex story touching on themes of extremism, identity and hope, “One Battle After Another” unfolds like a never-ending chase scene punctuated with moments of paternal tenderness. It has crushed awards season, winning Best Picture at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and, most recently, the Producers Guild Awards. In the past 16 years, 13 films that have nabbed Best Picture at the Producers Guild Awards have gone on to win the Oscar in the same category. This movie’s final battle figures to end in victory Sunday night.
Best Director: Chloé Zhao
The Oscar for Best Film and Best Director have aligned 70 out of 97 times, yet the 98th Academy Awards could buck this trend and split the statue. Zhao, who won the Academy Award for Best Director for “Nomadland” in 2020, weaves together a raw and profound story about grief and healing in “Hamnet.” Inspired by Maggie O’Farrell’s novel by the same name, “Hamnet” is a gripping period piece about the death of William Shakespeare’s 11-year-old son, told largely from the perspective of his wife, Agnes.
Zhao’s fluid telling of the tale, which masterfully captures both ache and empathy in every frame, has been lauded throughout the awards season, though she lost out to the aforementioned Paul Thomas Anderson at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs. Still, the Academy enjoys a surprise and Zhao might be the biggest one of the night. It doesn’t hurt that Hollywood heavy hitter Steven Spielberg produced the film.
Best Sound: “F1”
The film’s story may be flat, but the sound design in “F1” remains pitch-perfect. Led by Al Nelson, who previously won an Oscar in the same category for “Top Gun: Maverick,” the musicality of the grid comes to life in this picture. All puns aside, the sound emerges as the engine that truly drives the drama. Brimming with nuance and accuracy, Nelson and his team didn’t just re-create the noise of the track, but put forth a wholly immersive experience for moviegoers. Having already secured wins at the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs, Nelson should fly to the top of Oscar’s podium.
Best Animated Feature Film: “KPop Demon Hunters”
In development for seven years at and eventually passed on by Sony, before Netflix greenlit the project, the success of “KPop Demon Hunters” has been, fittingly, “Golden.” Created, written and directed by Maggie Kang, the musical action-comedy is a joyful exploration of culture, friendship and self-acceptance. Inspired by Korean heritage, Kang artfully constructs a supernatural good versus evil narrative centered around rival K-pop bands.
The story is sweet and the music undeniably catchy, and the box office has been banging, making history with a gross of over $24 million. The film hasn’t received only commercial success, however. It won the Critics Choice Award and the Golden Globe for Best Animated Feature. The Academy figures to follow suit, allowing HUNTR/X one final “Takedown.”
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Though I’m personally pulling for Kate Hudson, who showcases a career-differentiating amount of depth and versatility in “Song Sung Blue,” Buckley is a shoo-in to shine on Oscar night. The Irish actress and singer delivers a visceral performance as Agnes Shakespeare in “Hamnet.” Buckley’s soulful interpretation jumps off the screen as an artful embodiment of resolve, vulnerability and every emotion in between. She has dominated throughout the awards season, earning top honors at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
This category is shaping up to be one of the tightest matches of the evening, featuring a robust collection of contenders. Academy mainstay Leonardo DiCaprio, who despite having earned eight Academy Award nominations has managed just a single win (“The Revenant”), is, understandably, in the running for his work in “One Battle After Another.”
Additionally, Timothée Chalamet, who nabbed previous nominations for “Call Me by Your Name” (2017) and “A Complete Unknown” (2024), has generated significant buzz for his role in “Marty Supreme.” Chalamet was the assumed front-runner for this year’s Best Actor award after taking home hardware at the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes. However, Jordan surprised at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, edging out DiCaprio and Chalamet for his dual role in “Sinners.” With DiCaprio and Chalamet potentially splitting votes, Jordan has a good shot to come away on top again this Sunday.
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