The question plaguing Israelis now is what this means for Israel’s security and influence.
The sense of staunch US military and diplomatic support had remained unshaken in Israel despite growing anger among US voters, President Donald Trump’s public insults to Netanyahu, and differences over Israel’s actions in Iran and Lebanon.
Israel’s prime minister continually boasted of his closeness to Trump, describing his “true friendship” and “unwavering support”.
And just nine months ago, Israelis watched their armed forces wage war on Iran hand in hand with the US military, as the “unprecedented” coordination of the two allies became a daily mantra among military spokespeople and politicians.
So Trump’s unexpected statement during a Fox News interview this week that he would stop $3.8bn (3.4bn euros; £2.8bn) in US military aid to Israel two years earlier than planned, caused shock here – not so much for the loss of aid as for what the move said about Israel’s status as a diplomatic partner.
Israel’s president said the announcement came as “a bolt from the blue”.
“Nobody knows anything,” was the headline in a report by Yedioth Ahronoth, adding that officials were still struggling to understand whether Trump’s remark was serious, two days on.
The Israeli prime minister’s office responded to the news several days later, saying that the shift from US aid to partnership showed “the strength and sophistication” of the bilateral relationship.
US military aid is less than 10% of Israel’s annual military budget. But Yaakov Katz, author of several books about Israel’s defence and security, said Trump’s announcement was the tip of a much larger question around future funding, arms sales and joint military projects with Israel. All of this could be slowed or stalled by a Democrat-controlled Congress, even without the two-thirds majority it would need to overrule Trump.
“Everything that Israel used to get in a simpler, easier process will now potentially be much more complicated, and Israel has to be prepared that this is a new reality,” he told me.
“Our entire Air Force is American-made military planes, we’re dependent on American spare parts and American weapons. The last three years have shown us how dependent we are on American missile-defence systems. [If] those don’t show up at the same pace, that’s a real difference – that changes your calculation of what you’re able to withstand if you go to war.”
Katz believes the midterms could also translate into tougher demands on Israel over its actions in Gaza and Lebanon, and a requirement not to undermine an agreement with Iran.
“Something will change in the US-Israeli relationship, but it’s a question of scale,” said the US official I spoke to, who was not authorized to speak on the record. “It means shifting to [being] willing to criticise Israel when it’s warranted, but the bedrock fundamental relationship will still be there.”
In an interview on Israeli television, the US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee signalled little shift so far in core American positions, including on Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, describing the sanctions imposed by other countries as “irrational” and counterproductive.
Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, told another Israeli channel that Trump would be in the White House for the next two years, and that Israel could “feel good” about the US veto in the UN Security Council – something Washington has repeatedly used in the past to block resolutions that target Israel.
“But we have to pay attention to the voices – not only in the Democratic Party but also the Republican Party – criticising Israel,” he said. “It will be harder for us.”
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