In reality, it was only three points. All Tottenham took from their 2-0 win at Chelsea last Saturday evening was a helpful boost in the Premier League standings. But it feels far more significant than that.
This is a fixture Tottenham almost never win. In their 34 previous visits to Chelsea in the Premier League, they had won only once. It was their first win to nil at Stamford Bridge in any competition since December 1986, nearly 40 years ago. Winning at Chelsea is huge. Plenty of Spurs fans have only ever seen this happen once before, in April 2018 under Mauricio Pochettino, when their team was a formidable force.
Tottenham went into the game in the relegation zone with just one win this season – against promoted Coventry – after back-to-back 17th-place finishes, and with noteworthy absentees from their best team. Few supporters would have expected this result, and they are well within their rights to enjoy it.
The real reason this felt so seismic, though, is that it could be a turning point for a team that has veered terribly off course over the past two years. At great expense this summer, Tottenham bought into Roberto De Zerbi’s ideas, spending vast amounts to transform the team. Results in the early part of this season hinted that the new players would take a while to gel. Spurs took until the 86th minute of their fifth match, at which point they were already 3-0 down to Aston Villa, to score their first league goal of the season.
Since the international break that followed that defeat, though, Spurs have put in much-improved displays. They drew 1-1 at Manchester United, though they really deserved to win, and then secured their first win of the season against Coventry. All of their goals in that 3-1 win were scored from outside the box and generated only 0.86 expected goals. They probably deserved the win, but it was not the most convincing display.
However, in much more daunting surroundings away to Chelsea, they produced when it mattered most. Spurs kept the ball effectively, ending with 68.9% possession, and although they did not create many clear cut chances, winning through a freak Mike Penders own goal and a wonderful and surely unrepeatable individual goal from Mathys Tel after a 45-metre ball carry, they got into dangerous positions frequently. Their 0.74 xG did not tell the story of their dominance.
It was no coincidence that this was the first game that £85m summer signing Mateus Fernandes started at the base of their midfield. He is precisely the kind of press-resistant midfielder needed to play De Zerbi’s football but for several reasons, ranging from injuries and sharpness to the very recent birth of his first child, he had not started in his preferred position.
On Saturday, everything went through him and he proved he is most effective in a deeper midfield role. He was in his favoured position at Stamford Bridge alongside fellow expensive summer signing Sandro Tonali as Spurs’ new midfield pair finally played together for the first time.
Fernandes was exceptional. He had more touches than any other player has had away from home in a Premier League game this season (124). He also led the way for tackles (five) and completed 92.2% of his 102 passes. He was constantly getting himself and Spurs out of difficult situations. His total of 89 touches under pressure from an opponent was the fifth-highest by a player in a Premier League game this season and his 48 touches while under high pressure (meaning an opponent was within two metres of him) inside his own half was the highest total by anyone in the competition.
Most impressively, his pass completion rate while under pressure from an opponent was 91.2%. He also progressed play well. He played 27 line-breaking passes, the 12th most by anyone in a Premier League game this season. Crucially, 21 of those were made while under pressure, which nobody else in the division has been able to top all season. And Fernandes did it away to Chelsea.
If Tottenham needed unlocking to fulfil De Zerbi’s wishes, Fernandes may well be the key. He made it possible for Spurs to bait Chelsea’s press and play through them, getting the ball from back to front consistently and reliably – something Spurs have not done for a long time.
In truth, their work in the final third showed how much there is left to do. Their 58 final-third entries for just 0.74 xG is one of the worst ratios by any team in a Premier League game this season. But the consistency with which they reached attacking positions hints at what this team can achieve. Nobody in the squad has more than one league goal this season, so they need Dominic Solanke, Omar Marmoush, Sávio, Mohammed Kudus and Tel to find their shooting boots.
“We are improving a lot,” De Zerbi said after the win. “We are improving in the mentality in the group, in the relationships between the players and on the pitch.” This improvement is happening just in time for Spurs to hit a favourable run. Using the average Opta Power Rating of each team’s next five opponents, Spurs have the “easiest” run of every team in the Premier League.
They face Crystal Palace (home), Leeds (away), Ipswich (home), Sunderland (away) and Fulham (home). On the basis of their performance at Chelsea, Spurs should be hopeful of winning all of those matches. But, having won their last two games, stringing together five more wins would mean a seven-game winning run – something only Aston Villa managed in the whole of last season.
Spurs are still only three points off the relegation zone and are not out of trouble, but they are also – very suddenly – just two points off the top six. There is every reason for them to be looking up the table rather than down. Their next five matches are important, though, because they then face a difficult run, with games against Arsenal, Liverpool, Brighton, Bournemouth and Manchester City to come.
After such a positive performance at Stamford Bridge, it’s time for Spurs to start thinking about what they can achieve this season rather than worrying about whether they can escape another relegation battle. It’s also important to remember that it was only one win, and things could very quickly come crashing down. At least they have shown there are foundations to build upon and they have it within them to do exactly what De Zerbi wants.
This is an article by Opta Analyst
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