The first international window gives us time to take stock and make sense of what has happened in the early weeks of the Premier League season. Manchester City are the only team to have won all five of their matches. They have started life after Pep Guardiola in the best way possible on the pitch, opening a three-point gap over champions Arsenal, but how important is a fast start?
Of course, we do not yet know the punishment they may face for breaking the Premier League’s financial fair play rules so, for the purposes of this article, we will put that matter to the side.
Enzo Maresca’s side became the 15th different team to win their opening five games of a Premier League season, and it’s the fourth occasion City have managed it. They have only won the title in one of the three previous seasons, though. They won the league in 2023-24, but failed to capitalise on their five early wins in 2015-16 and 2016-17.
That follows a wider trend across the league. Only four of the 14 teams that have won their first five matches of the season have gone on to win the title (29%): Manchester City in 2023-24, Liverpool in 2019-20, and Chelsea in 2009-10 and 2005-06.
Perhaps most importantly, all four teams went on to add to their winning streak to start those seasons. Chelsea in 2009-10 and Manchester City in 2023-24 extended their run by another game (six wins); Liverpool started with eight wins in 2019-20; and Chelsea (nine wins in 2005-06) went on the longest winning run to start a Premier League season.
Tottenham hold the record for the most consecutive wins to start a top-flight league season. They won their first 11 games in 1960-61 and, unsurprisingly, won the title that campaign. But a winning start does not guarantee success, as Manchester United found in 1985-86. Despite winning their first 10 games that season (and remaining unbeaten in their first 15) under Ron Atkinson, they collapsed and ended the season in fourth place.
It must be said, City have benefited from having an easy run of fixtures. According to the Opta Power Rankings, City had the second-easiest start this season, with their opponents having an average rating of 91.2. Only Liverpool (91.1) were handed a simpler start to the season by the Premier League fixture computer.
Another statistic that will give City fans reason for pause is that none of the previous seven clubs to start a Premier League season with exactly five wins have gone on to win the title in that campaign.
The most recent of those was Liverpool last season. The reigning champions won games against Bournemouth, Newcastle, Arsenal, Burnley and Everton to open the 2025-26 campaign before losing four in a row. The fact Liverpool won four of their first five games with goals scored after the 83rd minute pointed to their run being unsustainable, and so it proved.
Question marks about City’s defensive qualities this season suggest this may be another unsustainable winning run. Their credentials will be tested when the Premier League returns and they visit Anfield to face Liverpool, who are still unbeaten under new boss Andoni Iraola.
The lowest position a team has finished after winning their first five games of a season is sixth (Newcastle United in 1994-95), although that did come in a 42-game campaign. Looking back at all English top-flight history, City’s current streak is the 40th different occasion of a team winning their first five games in a season. Just 14 of the previous 39 have gone on to win the league title (36%).
The average points won by Premier League champions from the first five games across the previous 34 Premier League campaigns is 11.3, which is above the total secured by Arsenal last season. They won 10 points from their first five games, dropping points by losing at Liverpool and drawing against Manchester City at home. Mikel Arteta’s side have started this season better this time around, winning 12 points from a possible 15, with their only blemish the shock 3-0 loss at Brighton.
The fewest points eventual Premier League champions have won from their first five games was in the inaugural season in 1992-93. Manchester United won only seven points from their first five matches (two wins, one draw and two defeats), but Alex Ferguson’s side recovered and finished 10 points clear of runners up Aston Villa after the 42-game season.
No team has won a Premier League title in a 38-game season after winning fewer than eight points from their first five matches. United have won the league four times after winning exactly eight points from their opening five games (in 1998-99, 2002-03, 2007-08 and 2008-09), with City replicating that feat in 2020-21. What we’re trying to say is, Hull City and Newcastle fans, it’s still possible.
The most astonishing turnaround by title winners has to be Sunderland’s effort in 1912-13, though. They failed to win any of their first seven games, drawing two and losing the other five, but they went on to win the First Division title. With just two points for a win back then, it was easier for teams to recover from a run of poor results; a monumental comeback nevertheless.
This is an article by Opta Analyst
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