It quickly became apparent this summer that Aston Villa would not be holding on to Morgan Rogers. Having helped the club finish fourth in the Premier League and win the Europa League, the 23-year-old was in demand.
Arsenal looked like his likeliest next destination, with the champions eager to strengthen the left side of their attack. The charm offensive came from many angles, with Martin Ødegaard, Mikel Arteta and the club’s England players trying to sell the idea to Rogers. But, with Arsenal reluctant to meet Villa’s asking price, Chelsea intervened and made Rogers the most expensive British player ever, surpassing the £116m that Manchester City paid Nottingham Forest for Elliot Anderson earlier this summer.
Xabi Alonso is new to Chelsea, so it is difficult to know exactly where Rogers will play. The versatile forward, who started out at West Brom before moving to Manchester City, Middlesbrough and then Villa, will probably be used in a variety of roles – often starting from the left but having opportunities to take up various attacking positions.
Alonso predominantly used a 3-4-3 formation at Bayer Leverkusen and a 4-2-3-1 at Real Madrid. If Chelsea play with three at the back, Rogers will be the left-sided No 10 in the team; if they use a four-man defence, he will start slightly wider but with the freedom to come inside – or he might even occupy the central role from time to time.
If Alonso goes with the style he used at Leverkusen, Rogers might not be the best fit. During Alonso’s two full seasons in the Bundesliga, the team averaged 62.1% (2023-24) and 59.6% (2024-25) possession. During their title-winning campaign in 2023-24, they went unbeaten all season while dominating the ball and moving up the pitch slowly.
They were set up to patiently build with lots of passes, win back possession quickly if they lost it and keep the ball as close to the opposition’s goal as possible. They made 367 high turnovers, which was 54 more than any other side. This system works best with attacking players who are tidy and intricate in tight spaces. However, Rogers is at his most effective when he can use his pace and gallop into space.
His dribble completion rate last season was just 34.2%, which was nothing to shout about. And his completion rate for passes under pressure was just 73.4% – again not exceptional. Of the 161 forwards and midfielders who attempted at least 300 passes under pressure last season, Rogers ranked 143rd. The statistics suggest he is not particularly effective in close-quarters engagements.
With space to attack, Rogers is a threat. He made 223 progressive carries last season, the 10th highest among Premier League forwards, wingers and attacking midfielders. Only Cody Gakpo (41) and Matheus Cunha (35) had more carries that ended in shots than Rogers (30). He also created 16 chances for teammates after a carry: only 11 players created more. Rogers’ combined 46 chances created and shots taken following carries put him behind just Jérémy Doku (58), Gakpo (57) and Bukayo Saka (56). Alonso’s passing style may not bring the best from Rogers.
There are reasons for optimism though. Rogers is frequently on the move and that makes him difficult to track. Only four players made more off-ball runs in the league last season; his 160 off-ball runs ending in the box was the eighth highest in the division.
He also has the potential to form a good relationship with João Pedro. The Brazilian will probably be the focal point of the team and he is not a conventional No 9. He likes to drop deep, link with teammates and be a creator almost as much as a finisher. With Pedro dropping back, there will be room for Rogers to exploit beyond him: he made 258 runs in behind last season, the 12th highest in the league.
Rogers’ strong relationship with Ollie Watkins bodes well for Chelsea. He created 20 open-play chances for Watkins last season, which was the second most from one player to another in the league. Wherever he has played, Rogers has developed an understanding with his teammates. He already has a close friendship with Cole Palmer after their time together in the Manchester City academy.
Rogers’ other great attribute is his ball-striking ability. Since he made his Premier League debut in February 2024, Rogers has scored 21 non-penalty goals from 14.7 non-penalty expected goals. His overperformance of +6.3 is the 10th highest in the league.
Rogers has a great strike on him and it could be a gamechanger for Chelsea, particularly when they play teams employing a low block. His five league goals from outside the box since his Villa debut is bettered by just six players. Few players are as accurate when shooting from distance. It was his shot against Norway that led to Jude Bellingham’s winning goal in the World Cup quarter-final.
Chelsea have paid an incredible amount of money for Rogers and there are reasons to wonder if the move will work tactically. But Rogers has a habit of making an impact regardless of the context. He’s not a right winger but he still made his presence known for England against Argentina in the World Cup semi-final, setting up Anthony Gordon’s opener from the right.
Is he a £117m player? Perhaps not. Will he succeed playing the same way he played at Villa? Perhaps not. But it’s hard to imagine him not making a significant impact at Stamford Bridge.
This is an article by Opta Analyst
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