-
Bill Connelly
Multiple Authors
Did you watch Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich on Tuesday? That sure was something! The first match of the UEFA Champions League semifinals showed us an even more open, optimistic and impossibly skilled version of the sport than what we saw when Bayern defeated Real Madrid 4-3 in a wild quarterfinal second leg.
On Tuesday in Paris, misplaced passes were rare, and the attacking intent was obvious. PSG scored five goals in 34 minutes, but has to head to Munich next week with nothing settled as Bayern scored four of their own. Unbelievable stuff.
But what broader conclusions can we draw from the Champions League this week?
There were nine goals, and it didn’t even seem like the defense was that bad!
Indeed. It appears that in the biggest matches of the season, Bayern manager Vincent Kompany has openly decided that his team’s best chance of a win comes from attacking to an almost irresponsible degree and hoping that his defenders, especially Dayot Upamecano, can win enough individual duels and snuff out enough potential counterattacks to give them the edge.
– UCL Talking Points: Are PSG favorites? Should Arsenal be angry?
– Marcotti: Don’t nitpick, just marvel at PSG-Bayern classic
– Reaction: Arsenal vs. Atletico confirms neither are likely winning it
On paper, the risk paid off. Bayern won 68% of all ground duels (58 to 27), generated 63% more xG (3.06 to 1.9), completed nearly twice as many progressive passes (62 to 33) and generated more than twice as many touches in both the attacking third (198 to 92) and the box (52 to 20). Yes, these numbers were partially driven by game state — you tilt the pitch better when you’re behind because your opponent is more likely to give you more of the ball — but they had the better ball progression numbers throughout the contest.
Of course, the obvious risk of playing this way against a team as talented as PSG is that they have otherworldly finishers, and you’re going to be giving them a few fantastic opportunities to finish. Sure enough, PSG placed five of their 12 shot attempts on goal, and all five went into the net. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, a coiled snake at all times, lashed in two beautiful goals — the first assisted by Désiré Doué, the second by Achraf Hakimi — and Ousmane Dembélé scored on a penalty in the first half (Manuel Neuer guessed the right direction, but Dembele’s strike was too fast and powerful) and on a breakaway in the second half that appeared to put the tie away.
PSG aren’t used to playing on their back foot; their possession rate in Ligue 1 play is 69%. But even with just 42% possession against Bayern, they generated good chances and finished them brilliantly. And according to the current Opta odds, they now have a 61% chance of advancing to the final despite Bayern’s own excellence.
I mean, this was just a ridiculous match.
Oh, by the way, Bayern and PSG were first and fourth, respectively, in last week’s Watchability rankings. The odds were quite good that they would put on a show, and they did. Math never lies to you. The only down notes were the fact that a controversial VAR decision and penalty played a key role (that was an issue in both semifinals, actually) and the late hamstring injury suffered by PSG right back Achraf Hakimi, a vital piece for both the PSG attack and press.
Haven’t I seen a lot of complaints about how boring soccer has been this year? This wasn’t boring at all!
Let me just put it this way: The more you complain about how boring soccer is, the more you reveal that you only watch the Premier League.
2:00
Burley: Atletico-Arsenal like a ‘Europa League semifinal’ compared to PSG-Bayern
Craig Burley can’t imagine either Atletico Madrid or Arsenal stopping PSG or Bayern from winning the Champions League.
Why can’t we have this in the Premier League then?
A few reasons. First of all, the Premier League doesn’t have Bayern, PSG and Real Madrid (Bayern’s equally watchable victim in the quarterfinal). They employ quite a few of the best and most entertaining attackers in the world between them. Bayern have Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Luis Díaz; PSG have Kvaratshkelia, Dembele, Doue and Bradley Barcola; PSG have Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Manchester City conqueror Federico Valverde.
Vinicius Junior was the Ballon d’Or runner up two years ago, Dembele won it last year, and Kane is this year’s current favorite. Give the best attacking talent in the world a platform for attacking in space, and they’re going to produce some special moments.
The answer goes beyond “Munich, Paris and Madrid aren’t in England,” though. When you have the best and richest league in the world — and the Premier League is certainly both of those things — that has some repercussions.
In this year’s Deloitte Football Money League rankings, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern and PSG were the top four teams on the list — they’re all near the top in Watchability, too — but England had each of the next six teams and 14 of the top 30. In Opta’s current power rankings, English teams account for 12 of the top 24 spots. Newcastle are 18th in the world, per Opta, but 14th in the Premier League table. Nottingham Forest are 23rd in the world, a ranking backed by their current Europa League semifinal run, but they have only recently begun to pull themselves out of relegation trouble.
This extreme depth has two effects. First, you can’t meter out your mileage in the Premier League. Bayern are finishing up one of their most dominant and prolific Bundesliga campaigns ever; they set the Bundesliga scoring record with a few matches to spare, and if they win their last three matches, they’ll tie their own 2012-13 record with 91 points. (They won the Champions League that year, too, for what that’s worth.) Part of their philosophy is to always be attacking, but when you’ve won 17 of 31 matches by at least three goals, it’s safe to say that you’re not in fifth gear for 90 minutes.
PSG, meanwhile, have seen heavy squad rotation all season due to both choice and injury. They’ve dropped points here and there and allowed Lens (another very watchable team) to hang around in the title race for quite a while, but they hit the gas pedal in recent weeks as one would expect.
1:54
Burley expects PSG to advance after thrilling first leg win
Craig Burley explains why he’s siding with PSG to beat Bayern Munich to the Champions League final.
Premier League co-leaders Arsenal and Manchester City haven’t exactly had the option of waiting until March to hit the throttle. They’ve faced elite or near-elite competition all year, and while Arsenal spent most of the season playing the best ball in the world, their standard has clearly dropped over the past month or two. Because everything has to create the most negative narrative imaginable, we’ve turned that into a huge indictment over Arsenal “bottling it.”
Of course, it’s a lot easier to bottle it when you’ve faced the toughest possible schedule.
The other major effect here is that when you have the deepest set of teams, you have the deepest set of talent, too. That means more good defenders, and more teams capable of punishing opponents who commit too much to attack.
Here’s a historical example: In 1989-90, Serie A ruled the soccer world. Italian clubs won the European Cup (AC Milan), UEFA Cup (Juventus) and Cup Winners’ Cup (Sampdoria) and produced the other UEFA Cup finalist (Fiorentina) as well. It was maybe the high point for a league that would produce a majority of the world’s most dominant clubs throughout the early-1990s.
That season, the league’s leading scorers included Marco van Basten, Roberto Baggio, Diego Maradona, Toto Schillaci, Rudi Voller, Jurgen Klinsmann, Roberto Mancini, Lothar Matthaus: a veritable who’s-who of the world’s best attackers. And in Serie A play that season, teams averaged a paltry 1.11 goals per match. Sure, Italy had a preponderance of the world’s best defenders, and even with the full-pressure success of Arrigo Sacchi’s AC Milan, catenaccio (focused on defense and the counterattack) was still the accepted style of the day. But when you have the most overall talent, you probably aren’t going to have the most prolific league.
1:42
Did VAR get it wrong on Arsenal’s penalty claim vs. Atletico Madrid?
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens break down the decision not to award Arsenal a penalty after VAR overturned the on-field call.
Sure enough, Premier League teams are only averaging 1.37 goals per game this season, 0.90 from open play. That pales into comparison to the wide open play we’ve seen in the Champions League (1.74 goals per team, 1.23 from open play) or Bundesliga (1.60, 1.10). It’s probably pretty telling that even Arsenal, the team with maybe the worst reputation for the Premier League’s supposed boringness, has been far more open and prolific in the Champions League: They’ve averaged 5% more shots and generated 25% more xG and 14% more goals in Champions League play, where you can still find opponents willing to play risky and open ball, than in their Premier League matches.
Want to know why a healthy percentage of ultra-expensive new center-forward signings in the Premier League have kind of stunk this season? Because everything’s harder when you play in the best league.
I wouldn’t hate it if a Premier League team hired Kompany, Luis Enrique (PSG) or Hansi Flick (Barcelona), though.
For sure. Enrique’s Barcelona teams averaged 2.9 goals per game, and his PSG teams have averaged 2.5. His coaching style is going to produce beautiful ball in any league, and there’s nothing in the world that will stop Flick (3.0 goals per game at Bayern, 2.8 at Barca) from attempting to deploy the most preposterous and delightful defensive high line in the world. And right now, though he is Belgian and not Dutch, no one in the world is attempting to both adhere to and modernize the principles of old-school, Dutch Total Football more than Kompany.
Kompany flashed a glimmer of what was to come at Bayern late last season, when injuries struck and he began using left back Raphaël Guerreiro as a central attacking midfielder; he was basically a No. 10 in possession, but was still frequently tracking back as a full back in defense. One of the main tenets of Total Football has always been that players will serve as interchangeable pieces at times, with defenders capable of taking attacking roles and vice versa. And to the eye, Bayern have ramped up their interchangeability to ridiculous degrees this season. Harry Kane has always been capable of dropping deep to help secure and build possession, and both he and Michael Olise could be seen fulfilling that role on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, defensive midfielder Aleksandar Pavlovic was almost literally everywhere.
Check out his effort on Tuesday:
Pavlovic recorded an assist and finished first on the team in chances created (two), total passes received (56) and total touches (79). He was also first on the team in total defensive interventions (19), ball recoveries (10), blocked shots (two) and both tackle attempts (seven) and successful tackles (six).
Upamecano was second in defensive interventions and also scored a goal on a set piece and made a couple of dangerous forays with long, progressive carries. In just one half, left back Konrad Laimer made seven defensive interventions, received two passes in the penalty area and attempted (and missed) one of the most high-value shots of the evening, a 0.54-xG attempt in the 54th minute.
Everyone was everywhere.
In just his second season at Bayern, Kompany has carved out his own unique and attractive spin on a classic style.
Wait, wasn’t Kompany fired from a Premier League team not too long ago?
Yep. It’s always been clear what style Kompany wants to deploy, but it only works like this when you have the talent to pull it off.
Kompany took over at Burnley right after the Clarets had been relegated to the English Championship in 2022, and they recorded a ridiculous 101 points (2.20 per game) with a ball-dominant style. They were first in the league in possession rate (64.0%), goals (1.89 per game), shots per possession (0.11), progressive passes (55.5 per game), progressive carries (92.3) and touches in the attacking third (177.3 per match), and with their extreme tilting of the pitch, they were also first in most of those same categories in defense.
1:08
Leboeuf: Even the best defenders in the world end up in trouble
Frank Leboeuf says the defensive side of the game was “forgotten” in Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich’s UCL semifinal.
Burnley moved up to the Premier League the next season, continued to attempt solid possession and field tilt with no talent or experience advantages to be found, and finished 19th in the league. Kompany was summarily fired, and it was a pretty big shock when Bayern plucked him away at the end of May 2024.
That same season, Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham Hotspur found some temporary advantages with his heavy pressing and strong possession game, but they finished dead last in xG allowed per shot and had slipped to fifth by the end of the season. Postecoglou was fired after finishing 17th the next year. Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth attempted their own version of a direct, up-tempo style in 2024-25 but ran out of gas and finished ninth. He’s dialed back the tempo a hair this year, and they’ve inched up to seventh.
The depth of the Premier League forces you to become more adaptable. Maybe Kompany learned that lesson and would show a bit more caution at times if he were to succeed Pep Guardiola at Manchester City, or take some other major job in the future. Or maybe Bayern has the perfect marriage of style and talent advantages, and Kompany should just stay there forever. Regardless, this has been a fun thought experiment as to what makes a successful manager.
With his obvious man management abilities and a style that only works with severe talent advantages, Kompany is obviously more well-suited for a major club. Others fall into the Sean Dyche model, failing to relate to the world’s most talented players but succeeding for years at scrapping and dragging less talented teams to better-than-expected results. Dyche was better than Kompany at Burnley, but Dyche would absolutely bomb at Bayern.
Either way, I have a proposal for the next thought experiment: Let’s have Pep Guardiola manage Stockport County.
Pep Guardiola was spotted at Edgeley Park watching Stockport County vs. Port Vale 👀 pic.twitter.com/BSu1uc1zdL
— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) April 28, 2026
Or better yet, send him to Wrexham! Think of the TV ratings!
I think you’ve digressed a little here.
Agreed.
Now that I think about it, didn’t I see that Olise guy in the Premier League, too?
Yep! And despite seeing him up close and personal, no one thought in the league he was worth more than the €53 million Bayern paid Crystal Palace for his services in 2024. Manchester United were interested, but went after Joshua Zirkzee instead.
Alexander Isak (Liverpool), Benjamin Sesko (Manchester United), Nick Woltemade (Newcastle) and Matheus Cunha (Manchester United) went to Premier League teams for a combined €370.7m in transfer fees this past offseason, and they’ve produced 42 combined goals and assists between them in all competitions this year. Olise has 45 by himself.
1:18
Moreno credits Bayern for keeping PSG tie alive in Paris
Ale Moreno was impressed to see Bayern Munich keep the tie against PSG alive after falling 5-2 down in Paris.
This past summer, Liverpool let Luis Diaz join Bayern at least in part to clear space for Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike. Wirtz and Ekitike have combined for 24 goals and 14 assists this season; Diaz has 26 and 17. Yes, life is harder for Premier League attackers, but good business is good business, and Bayern’s done more of that in the last couple of years than most Premier League teams.
Bayern have been obsessed with adding Premier League talent for years now, actually, and it has produced some bad business for the German side. Spending €51m on Fulham’s João Palhinha, for instance, was one of the single most baffling moves the club has ever made, especially since the club had already fired the manager (Thomas Tuchel) who had so openly pined for him. But bringing Olise and Diaz over to complement former Tottenham star Harry Kane has worked out beautifully, and they reportedly want Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon next.
Will the Premier League’s top clubs let him leave the league too? And could they stop him regardless? Bayern and PSG (and yes, Real Madrid and Barcelona) all pay well, and all of them employ guys who certainly don’t mind avoiding the rigors of the Premier League. Lord knows players like Kvaratshkelia, Vinícius, Lamine Yamal and Mbappe certainly haven’t suffered for having never moved to England.
Speaking of Mbappe, why wasn’t PSG ever this good with him?
Yeah, that’s a whole different can of worms. Watch how aggressively PSG press at times, however, and you’ll certainly get part of the answer.
Are we sure this wouldn’t work in England?
Hey, I’m all for them giving it a shot. Even in Serie A’s defense-and-talent heyday, Zdenek Zeman was able to win matches at Foggia and elsewhere with one of the most unapologetic attacking styles the game has ever seen. If you pair the right talent with the right manager, just about any style can work to a degree.
In the meantime, it’s fine that the Premier League is a little more physical and boring. The quality is obvious, and we are free to watch whatever we want. The more you branch out and taste other leagues, the more you’ll enjoy this sport.
No matter what, we still get at least another 90 minutes of Bayern vs. PSG next week.
Leave a Reply