AUGUSTA, Ga. — Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa are on the mend from back injuries.
World No. 1 golfer Scottie Scheffler has a baby boy and hasn’t played in nearly a month.
For those reasons and more, the 90th edition of the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club feels more wide open than most.
“It just makes this event a little bit more special and even more fun going out there and playing against the best,” 2018 Masters champion Patrick Reed said.
Does this year’s Masters feel more wide open than it has in a little while?
Mark Schlabach: Scheffler hasn’t been as dominant, and McIlroy and Collin Morikawa have been dealing with back injuries, so it does feel as if it’s wide open. I think there could be as many as 10 to 12 golfers who could win a green jacket this week, and the aforementioned previous major champions might not even be the favorites because of their injuries and long layoffs.
Perhaps it’s LIV Golf League stars Jon Rahm or Bryson DeChambeau, or former Masters champion Reed, who left the Saudi Arabia-financed circuit before the season and is returning to the PGA Tour this fall. Reed has five top-10s at Augusta National since 2018, which is tied with Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Cameron Smith for most.
“I just feel like with how deep golf has been, especially this past year to two years, that the fields are obviously getting a lot stronger,” Reed said. “I feel like the field this week is really strong like always. I feel like it used to be five or six, maybe seven guys. I definitely feel like this year you have 10 to 12 guys who have a really legitimate opportunity to win the green jacket.
“It just makes this event a little bit more special and even more fun going out there and playing against the best.”
Schauffele has been playing as well as anyone on the PGA Tour, and he could pick up the third leg of the career Grand Slam. So could Morikawa, who was playing great before his injury, and Brooks Koepka, who has already stacked up five major championship victories.
Paolo Uggetti: Here’s the world ranking of every player who has won each of the past seven Masters, starting with Tiger Woods in 2019: sixth, first, 14th, first, third, first, second.
In other words, over the past decade, the tournament has consistently produced high-level winners. And more specifically, in the past four years, Scheffler, Rahm and McIlroy have all been one of the top favorites heading into the week.
This year feels different. Yes, Scheffler is still looming over the sport, but his form has dipped slightly from historic to really good. McIlroy hasn’t shown his best so far this season and is still in the honeymoon phase after his dramatic win last year, and Rahm has played great golf on LIV but has underperformed in majors over the past few seasons.
There does feel as if there’s a vacuum ready to be filled by either a random winner this year or an unexpected player who has shown form so far this season. That means players such as Cameron Young, Jacob Bridgeman, Matt Fitzpatrick and Akshay Bhatia and Chris Gotterup — all of them have won an event this season. In fact, it feels as if anyone in the top 25 of the Official World Golf Ranking this year — Patrick Reed! — has a real shot to don the green jacket come Sunday. We might be overdue for a slightly unexpected winner, but it could also mean we’ll get a tournament with a lot of names in contention down the stretch.
Is Scotty Scheffler still the favorite?
Schlabach: If Scheffler regains his form, I think he’s still the player to beat at Augusta National. He won his first start of the season in the American Express on Jan. 22, then had back-to-back top-five finishes in Phoenix and Pebble Beach, California.
Yes, Scheffler’s swing didn’t look great in two starts during the Florida swing, but it’s not as if he finished tied for 56th. He tied for 24th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and for 22nd in the Players. Because he didn’t finish in the top 10, a lot of people are wondering what’s wrong.
Now that Scheffler’s wife, Meredith, has given birth to their second son, Remy, who was born on March 27, maybe his mind will be clearer and more focused.
Yes, Scheffler’s ball-striking metrics haven’t been as good as in the past few seasons. He ranks 82nd in strokes gained: approach (.080) on tour; he was first in that stat entering each of the previous three Masters.
But his putting has been lights out. He’s 17th on tour in strokes gained: putting (.547) and he gained strokes on the green in each of his past 12 starts. That’s scary for the rest of the field.
Uggetti: Literally, figuratively, spiritually and actually — yes, Scheffler is still the favorite and should be. We are nitpicking when we look at what he has done this year and shrug, but that’s the kind of standard the No. 1 player in the world has inevitably created for himself.
As I referenced above, besides maybe Reed, there’s also no other player with the kind of experience at Augusta and recent form who could even make the case to be a close favorite to Scheffler.
Make no mistake: Scheffler hasn’t looked like his dominant self. His strokes gained: approach numbers are far worse so far than in recent years, which is worrisome. And there also has been a clear undercurrent of frustration that he has shown when he has played below his standards. And yet, Augusta is Scheffler’s happy place and there is no better week for him to get right than this one.
What do you expect from DeChambeau and Rahm this week?
Schlabach: DeChambeau won his past two starts in the LIV Golf League, in Singapore and South Africa, and I think he’s going to be highly motivated to play well this week.
McIlroy played mind games with him in the final round last year, and it seemed to work as DeChambeau’s 3-over 75 over the final 18 holes knocked him out of the mix.
After struggling at Augusta National early in his career, DeChambeau was in the top 10 after each round in the past two Masters — the only other golfer who did that was Scheffler. He has figured out how to attack the course, and I’d be shocked if he’s not in the hunt again this week.
Uggetti: Rahm might be the most fascinating player at the Masters this week. He’s coming off a stout run of finishes on LIV (one win and no worse than a fifth-place finish in five events) and yet it’s unclear how much that form will or can translate to a place like Augusta.
Rahm’s major record has been a mixed bag since going to LIV — he has three top-10 finishes, a missed cut and two finishes outside of the top 30. Here, the two-time major champion has finished T-45 and T-14 since his win in 2023.
It would be foolish to count out Rahm at Augusta, especially when his game has been trending in the right direction. For him, winning a second green jacket would go a long way toward reinforcing his place among the game’s top players.
How do you think the course will play this year?
Schlabach: It has been bone-dry in Georgia for a couple of months, so I’m sure the greens are firm — and they’re only going to get faster if that’s what Augusta National wants this week.
“I think speed on the greens is going to be crucial, as always, with them being firm and fast,” Schauffele said. “Big accomplishment to keep three-putts off the card. I think that’s always a big goal here at Augusta. Then positioning.
“If you can really be disciplined, make sure your good shots are great but make sure your bad shots are in the correct spots, that’s how you need to play to be in contention on this property, and I think everyone knows that. The hard part is doing it.”
Uggetti: It’s early, but we might be in for a firm and fast Masters. No rain is in the forecast and the course already appears to be quite bouncy and dry.
“I think the course is in great shape, and it’s already pretty firm. It seems like the grass is really full. It’s always in good condition here, but it seems like there’s just a little bit more grass,” Smith said. “It’s a little bit fuller, and there’s no rain in the forecast. They can really do whatever they want, I feel like. It will be firm and fast, I would assume.”
Players are expecting the course to only get firmer, faster and more challenging. Come the weekend, when the weather is supposed to get into the 80s, we could be in store for quite the performance, not from any player, but from the course itself. The cream should rise to the top accordingly.
Sleeper pick for the week
Schlabach: Bhatia is only 24, but he’s already a three-time winner on the PGA Tour, most recently in the Arnold Palmer Invitational on March 8.
Now ranked 19th in the world, Bhatia has the skill set to win a green jacket. He ranks sixth on tour in strokes gained: total (1.646), eighth in approach (.792) and 10th in putting (.730).
He also has fared well in a couple of big events the past few seasons, tying for 16th in the 2024 U.S. Open and for 13th in the Players in March.
Plus, three left-handed golfers have won the Masters — Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson and Mike Weir. I wouldn’t be stunned to see Bhatia become the fourth. If not this year, then sometime in the near future.
Uggetti: Are we sleeping, a bit, on known major hunter Koepka? To be clear, since Koepka won the 2023 PGA Championship and finished T-2 at Augusta that year, he has not finished inside a top 10 of a major in his past 10 tries, including missing three cuts at majors last year.
Koepka, now back on the PGA Tour, has slowly found his form. He missed the cut at the Houston Open but had finished inside the top 20 in his past three events before that. It would be a bit surprising if Koepka donned the green jacket Sunday, but there’s certainly a pathway to it.
As far as a longer shot goes, how about Jason Day (+10000)? He finished in a tie for eighth last year and has been hovering around the top of leaderboards on tour recently.
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