Your men's Final Four guide: Illinois-UConn, Arizona-Michigan (with predictions!)

Jeff Borzello
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Jeff Borzello

ESPN Staff Writer
- Basketball recruiting insider.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Graduate of University of Delaware.
and
Myron Medcalf
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Myron Medcalf

ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college basketball
- Joined ESPN.com in 2011
- Graduate of Minnesota State University, Mankato

Multiple Authors

Apr 2, 2026, 07:40 AM ET

The 2026 edition of the men’s NCAA tournament has brought all the madness that makes March, including early-round upsets, buzzer-beaters and one shining moment (or a few).

The road ends in Indianapolis, where four top-three seeds will face off in Saturday’s Final Four for a chance to advance to Monday’s national championship game.

ESPN’s college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf have been following these teams all season. Here are the factors they see deciding UConn-Illinois and Arizona-Michigan.

6:09 p.m. ET, Saturday

What to know about UConn

How the Huskies reached the Final Four:

Round of 64: 82-71 vs. No. 15 Furman
Round of 32: 73-57 vs. No. 7 UCLA
Sweet 16: 67-63 vs. No. 3 Michigan State
Elite Eight: 73-72 vs. No. 1 Duke

No. 1 factor that helped UConn reach the Final Four: Tarris Reed Jr. and the experience to maintain the type of patience the Huskies needed to deal with a Duke team that had a 19-point lead in the first half has pushed them here. Three players in the starting rotation have been in coach Dan Hurley’s system for at least two years, a rarity in the current landscape. Illinois will be the only team in Indianapolis that can match that.

Hurley is as great at recruiting as he is at retention. Freshman Braylon Mullins has had an up-and-down season, seemingly never hitting his stride consistently, but he was a five-star recruit for a reason. When Hurley turned to Mullins, he hit the biggest 3-pointer of his life with 0.4 seconds left to send UConn back to the Final Four.

The Huskies also held Duke to a clip of 100 points per 100 possessions in the second half after the Blue Devils had scored at 147 points per 100 possessions in the first half. UConn kept fighting and won.

Player who needs to step up: Solo Ball

Ball has had more lows than highs over the past month. The 6-foot-4 guard has gone cold, averaging 8.5 points per game in March, down from his 14.1 mark between November and February. When Ball is a playmaker, though, the Huskies are a better team. He scored 15 points when UConn defeated Illinois 74-61 in November. He recorded a respective 17 and 19 points against ranked Kansas and Florida teams in December. The Huskies are a different squad when he is hitting shots; a resurgence could change their fortunes in Indianapolis.

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn game preview

Check out some stats on the matchup between Illinois and UConn in the NCAA men’s tournament.

Potential fatal flaw: UConn doesn’t create as many free throw opportunities for itself as it does for opponents.

Dan Hurley’s team is one of the worst in America when it comes to putting opponents on the free throw line, ranking 307th out of 365 teams on KenPom. It also is one of the worst teams at generating free throw attempts (306th). In the Huskies’ five losses, they had 80 free throw attempts combined, while their opponents had 128. That matters for this particular matchup because no team in America sends opponents to the free throw line less often than Illinois — the No. 1 team in defensive free throw rate — and it also ranks 14th nationally with a 78% rate from the charity stripe.

UConn will win if: Illinois has been the best offensive team in the country, but it also played elite defense against Houston in the Sweet 16 and Iowa in the Elite Eight. UConn will have to solve that. The Huskies have size allowing them to play a restrictive zone that has stifled opponents. Houston and Iowa both made under 40% of their shots inside the arc against Illinois, so UConn’s game plan has to begin with Reed, who has scored at least 20 points in three of his past four games. The Huskies’ big man was dominant against Duke, and he will have to be great in the post so the Fighting Illini can’t get comfortable in that zone. The Huskies also will have to exploit the pockets in Illinois’ defense; Reed’s production will be the key to achieving that.

On defense, it all starts with guarding Keaton Wagler. The Huskies have multiple guards they can throw at the 6-foot-5 projected NBA draft lottery pick. UConn can’t allow the freshman to put up big numbers.

Protecting the rim against one of the biggest teams in Indianapolis also will matter. — Medcalf

What to know about Illinois

How the Fighting Illini reached the Final Four:

Round of 64: 105-70 vs. No. 14 Pennsylvania
Round of 32: 76-55 vs. No. 11 VCU
Sweet 16: 65-55 vs. No. 2 Houston
Elite Eight: 71-59 vs. No. 9 Iowa

No. 1 factor that helped Illinois reach the Final Four: The Illini’s offense is one of the most efficient in KenPom history, but it was their defense that sparked this run to Indianapolis. They held VCU to 55 points and 0.83 points per possession in the round of 32, Houston to 55 points and 0.94 points per possession in the Sweet 16 and Iowa to 59 points and 1.08 points per possession in the Elite Eight. They have protected the rim and the paint at an incredibly high level, limiting all three of the aforementioned opponents to below 48% inside the arc. (Iowa had only seven 2-pointers on Saturday.)

It’s a dramatic improvement from their defensive performance late in the regular season, when the Illini saw six of their final nine opponents score at least 1.17 points per possession, suffering five of their eight losses over that stretch. Their offense hasn’t missed a beat, but their defense suddenly looking like a top-10 unit has been a season-changing development for coach Brad Underwood’s team.

Player who needs to step up: David Mirkovic.

Illinois obviously needs Keaton Wagler to excel in order to win this game, but Mirkovic’s efforts at both ends of the floor will be key. UConn forward Alex Karaban was a liability defensively in the first half against Duke, unable to defend Cameron Boozer (and occasionally Patrick Ngongba II) in the low post. Can Mirkovic score against Karaban on the block? According to Synergy, nearly 44% of Mirkovic’s shot attempts this season came at the rim, including 141 layup or dunk attempts.

Defensively, Mirkovic has to chase Karaban around endless screens and off-ball actions to make sure he doesn’t get going offensively. When Karaban is hitting shots like he was in the first three rounds of the NCAA tournament, UConn operates at a different level at that end of the floor.

Potential fatal flaw: Reliance on the 3-pointer.

Given its propensity for shooting treys, Illinois can be reliant on the perimeter shot — and if it’s not falling, that will be hugely beneficial to UConn. In wins this season, the Illini are shooting nearly 36% from 3; in losses, that number drops to 31.8%. It’s worth noting that they have made double-digit 3s in a game just once since March 3 after doing it in 18 of the previous 22 outings. They went just 3-for-17 from 3 in the Elite Eight against Iowa and still scored nearly 1.30 points per possession.

Illinois will win if: The biggest key will be to limit Reed — or get him into foul trouble. Reed has been one of the most dominant big men of this NCAA tournament, and his ability to score at the rim in single coverage has bailed out the Huskies’ inconsistent perimeter shooting. But with center Eric Reibe not nearly as effective as he was earlier in the season, UConn takes a massive hit at both ends of the court when Reed is out.

The other key will be the 3-point battle. The Huskies have made double-digit 3s once since Feb. 18, but they haven’t given up double-digit made 3s over that same span. Illinois attempts 3s at a higher rate than almost any team in the country, while UConn’s shotmakers — Karaban, Ball and Mullins — have been inconsistent. The Illini could outshoot the Huskies.

Illinois’ defensive turnaround also has to continue. The Illini have had a top-10 defense since the start of the NCAA tournament, but they ranked outside the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency up until that point. They were prone to some real howlers against efficient offensive teams, even in February and early March. UConn, despite its inconsistencies from the perimeter, was the most efficient offensive team in the Big East. — Borzello

UConn vs. Illinois Predictions

Borzello’s prediction: UConn, 74-72
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn, 77-73

8:49 p.m. ET, Saturday

What to know about Arizona

How the Wildcats reached the Final Four:

Round of 64: 92-58 vs. No. 16 Long Island
Round of 32: 78-66 vs. No. 9 Utah State
Sweet 16: 109-88 vs. No. 4 Arkansas
Elite Eight: 79-64 vs. No. 2 Purdue

No. 1 factor that helped: The Wildcats’ relentlessness in the paint has been unparalleled, and it carried them when it mattered in the NCAA tournament.

For the season, Arizona ranked fifth in the country in paint points, averaging more than 42. It also led the nation in free throw attempts with nearly 20 points per game at the line. Against another dominant paint team in Arkansas in the Sweet 16, Arizona had perhaps the most efficient interior performance ever seen in March: The Wildcats had 60 paint points and 30 points from the free throw line, the most combined points in an NCAA tournament game in the past 20 years. Then, after Purdue matched them down low in the first half of their Elite Eight showdown, the Wildcats played with an increased urgency and imposed their will in the second half. The Wildcats finished with 40 paint points and 20 points from the free throw line, outscoring the Boilermakers by a combined 28 points in those areas.

It’s not just the post scoring from Koa Peat and Motiejus Krivas or the offensive rebounding from Tobe Awaka; it’s also the relentless attacking from Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries and Ivan Kharchenkov. Coach Tommy Lloyd preaches paint points, and it’s reflected in every part of his team’s offense.

The plays that helped Michigan and Arizona make the Final Four

Check out the best NCAA tournament plays from Michigan and Arizona ahead of their Final Four matchup.

Player who needs to step up: Kharchenkov.

While Burries and Peat garner most of the attention, it’s the third freshman in Arizona’s starting lineup who will be the key to this one. Kharchenkov has been terrific in the NCAA tournament, averaging 14.0 points and 6.5 rebounds, including an 18-point, eight-rebound performance against Purdue in the Elite Eight. His physicality and aggressiveness on the offensive glass provides a lift for Arizona. He also is one of the best defensive players in the country. He’ll likely be the primary defender on Yaxel Lendeborg, which arguably will be Kharchenkov’s toughest test yet. Can Kharchenkov keep Lendeborg off the offensive glass, out of transition and limit his impact off the bounce — all while Kharchenkov provides his usual energy on the offensive end? He’ll have to be up to the task.

Potential fatal flaw: Lack of 3-point shooting.

It has been Arizona’s clear weakness since the start of the season. So, yes, you could argue that it hasn’t mattered yet, but the Wildcats are such a huge outlier in recent history when it comes to 3-point volume. They rank No. 363 nationally in 3-point attempt rate and No. 361 in percentage of points from 3s, and they have made double-digit 3-pointers just four times all season (and only once since Dec. 13). They’re so good in the paint and on the defensive end that they’re still capable of dominating. But the Wildcats didn’t get going offensively against Purdue until they hit a few perimeter shots to loosen up the Boilermakers’ defense in the second half of the Elite Eight. Hitting even six or seven 3s could prove imperative for Tommy Lloyd’s team.

Arizona will win if: This will be the ultimate strength-on-strength battle in the paint, but Arizona is more reliant — and better — at dominating the glass and finishing at the rim. That’s the key here. The Wildcats are in the top five nationally in paint points per game and offensive rebound percentage, and they lead the nation in free throw attempts per game. Michigan, meanwhile, is in the top five in 2-point defense, block rate and average 2-point attempt distance defensively. The Wolverines also limit their fouling. Can Arizona continue to control the paint against a team that can match it from a size and physicality perspective?

It’s the same situation at the other end of the court. Michigan shoots better than 61% inside the arc and ranks in the top 20 in paint points and second-chance points per game. Arizona will have to win the interior battle on both ends.

The Wildcats also need to limit Michigan’s transition opportunities. Tennessee is as good as any team in college basketball at defensive transition — and the Wolverines torched the Volunteers. Michigan scores more than 13 fast-break points per game in wins, according to CBB Analytics, and more than seven per game in losses. It is incredibly efficient offensively. But the Wolverines don’t necessarily have a lot of players capable of breaking down defenses in late-clock and late-game situations; if Arizona can force them to play almost exclusively in the half court, that will help. — Borzello

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 1 Arizona game preview

Check out some stats on the matchup between Michigan and Arizona in the NCAA men’s tournament.

What to know about Michigan

How the Wolverines reached the Final Four:

Round of 64: 101-80 vs. No. 16 Howard
Round of 32: 95-72 vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
Sweet 16: 90-77 vs. No. 4 Alabama
Elite Eight: 95-62 vs. No. 6 Tennessee

No. 1 factor that helped Michigan reach the Final Four: The Wolverines can quickly shift gears and reach a level few teams are able to match. Their Elite Eight win over Tennessee was arguably the most complete game we’ve seen by any team in the NCAA tournament. Michigan outscored the Volunteers 48-26 in the first half and held them to just 85 points per 100 possessions. With 10:52 to play in the first half, Tennessee had a 16-15 lead over Michigan; the Wolverines then launched a 33-10 rally to end the half. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes had his head in his hands. What can anyone do when Michigan plays that way?

The Wolverines are big, have stars and play great defense — and when it’s time to stand their ground and battle, no team is better. That’s why Michigan made it to Indianapolis.

Player who needs to step up: Morez Johnson Jr.

Johnson has been terrific this season, including throughout the NCAA tournament, but he’ll have to be a versatile defender against an Arizona team with an eight-man rotation in this one. Arizona was able to launch its comeback against Purdue in part because of the Wildcats’ ability to create mismatches. Peat scored over smaller defenders. Burries hit a 3-pointer as big man Oscar Cluff chased him. Bradley drove through the lane, forcing the Boilermakers to send extra defenders. Defensive matchups are never consistent against Arizona, so Johnson will have to play like a free safety at times, roaming the floor wherever defensive help is needed.

Potential fatal flaw: Offensive breakdowns when not making 3-pointers.

Michigan is nearly flawless by the numbers. The Wolverines have three former centers in their starting rotation — each a projected first-round NBA draft pick — and they’ve lost just three games. But there is one common thread in those defeats: The teams that beat Michigan played great perimeter defense. No team in America can stop this Michigan frontcourt from impacting the game in the paint. In its losses, however, Michigan finished 21-for-74 (28%) from 3 in those matchups. If the Wildcats can pressure Michigan’s backcourt and affect its ability to change the game with success from beyond the arc, that could influence the outcome.

Michigan will win if: The Wolverines will have to force the Wildcats to take shots outside the paint and neutralize all paths to the rim. Arizona is a really difficult team to compete against when it can get downhill, penetrate and attack teams in the lane. The Wildcats are in the top 10 nationally in drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line; that has been their bread and butter, and they’re better at that tactic than any team in Indianapolis.

On offense, Michigan has to extend Arizona’s defense by shooting well from the 3-point line. The Wildcats’ four NCAA tournament opponents struggled from beyond the arc, but the Wolverines have made 40% of their 3s since March 1. If Arizona is forced to focus on what the Wolverines are doing on the perimeter, that will create more room for Michigan’s Lendeborg, Johnson and Aday Mara to operate in the lane.

Still, against this strong of an Arizona team, Michigan might need Lendeborg to be the standout with a high-level performance comparable to the 27-point effort he produced against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. — Medcalf

Arizona vs. Michigan Predictions

Borzello’s prediction: Arizona, 82-80
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan, 78-76

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