In one if the earliest sessions at the Series Mania Forum conference strand in Lille, France, Ampere Analysis research manager Olivia Deane took to the stage Tuesday with a presentation titled “A Year in Series: The Post-Peak-TV Era,” armed with data that reframes the industry’s current malaise. The headline isn’t just that there’s less money. It’s that television has become so slow to make that the market can’t feed its own appetite.
Deane’s argument is that the conventional Peak-TV-is-over narrative misses the structural problem underneath. “There were only 2% fewer Western European scripted TV commissions announced in 2025 than in 2020,” she told Variety, “but they will take on an average 40% longer to make.” That bottleneck, not the commissioning decline itself, is what’s choking the supply chain.
Revenue: Down, But Not Where You Think
Revenue growth across the Western European media industry fell from $15.2 billion during Peak TV (2020–2022) to $9.3 billion in the post-Peak TV era (2023–2025). But Deane pointed to a crucial wrinkle: “While everyone is thinking that original spending is reducing at the same rate, it’s actually a much, much smaller reduction.” Spending on originals dropped just 3%, even as overall revenue contracted by 53%.
The growth that remains is coming from new models. VOD and FAST advertising was the only business line to accelerate post-Peak TV, but these platforms are buyers, not makers. Of 43,000 TV seasons on FAST channels in Western Europe last year, none were originals. SVoD still accounted for 75% of all revenue growth, but 73% of the $7 billion in SVoD gains came from ad-tier subscriptions, a boost Deane suggested may be short-lived given market saturation. And because platforms no longer need shiny originals to attract subscribers they already have, they too are shifting towards acquisition. Across the top global streamers in Western Europe, most have cut commissions and increased acquisitions, with HBO Max a notable exception as it continues its rollout.
The Bottleneck
The average time from order to release for a scripted series in Western Europe has climbed from 288 days in 2020 to 404 in 2025. Per-episode budgets soared during Peak TV, from $11 million for “The Crown” Season 4 to $58 million for “Rings of Power,” and with them came longer, more complex productions that the industry hasn’t unwound.
“It’s basically where I think the biggest problem is coming from,” Deane said. “We’ve got a bottleneck, and it’s why the current state of production can’t capitalize on what is actually a really good and healthy global acquisitions market.”
Commissioners are changing tact. Second-season renewals have dropped from 32% to 19% between 2020 and 2025, with platforms concentrating on long-running returners rather than gambling on sophomore seasons. Genres with the longest production times such as sci-fi and fantasy are being hit hardest, while fast-turnaround unscripted formats like entertainment and documentary are thriving.
The keynote also flagged the uneven distribution of Peak TV spending. Streamers poured money into scripted content for subscription decision-makers, while children’s and family programming was largely bypassed. SVoD accounted for just 7% of children’s and family scripted commissions during the boom. “Those sections of the market are suffering the most now because they didn’t even get the good times,” she observed.
Asia Pacific Steps In
The supply crunch in Western Europe and North America has opened the door for Asia Pacific content, which in 2025 overtook both regions in scripted non-original acquisitions premiering globally. Romance, buoyued by K-drama, was the only genre to show positive acquisition growth between 2024 and 2025, up 18%. But Deane urged caution: when Ampere asked consumers to name their favourite genre globally, crime and thriller still topped the list at 11%. Romance came last at 6%.
“It’s really good that there’s lots of romance scripted titles out there to be acquired, to help people fill their scripted catalogues,” she said. “But ultimately, it’s not really what viewers want globally to watch.”
Why Crime Is the Sweet Spot
Crime and thriller sits at the intersection of audience demand, short production timelines and international sales potential. It accounted for 28% of all scripted titles with production times under two years, the largest share of any genre, with most originating from Western European public broadcasters, led by ARD and ZDF.
“The hot topic at the end of last year that everybody was talking about was cosy crime, and I was thinking, where does this come from?” Deane said. “But then once you start to look at production times, and you see that they don’t have time to make sci fi. They don’t have time to make action and adventure. And then you compare popularity of crime and thriller with the amount of time it takes to make, it’s the obvious choice.”
Deane closed with a forward look at micro drama, where content on the two largest U..S platforms has grown to 4,332 titles and consumer appetite remains “insatiable.” The next growth markets, she predicted, will be Turkey, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, where telenovela traditions align with the format’s themes of wealth and revenge. Her advice: prioritize production efficiency, design for an acquisition-first market, and explore the vertical-screen frontier while barriers to entry remain low.
Leave a Reply