Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“The Devil is Busy” (HBO Documentary Films)
Oscars Best Documentary Short Film Commentary (Updated March 9, 2026): It’s been a banner year for the documentary short contenders, with each nominee presenting a compelling case for why it could walk away with the coveted Oscar statuette.
Since debuting at the Telluride Film Festival, Joshua Seftel’s devastatingly moving “All the Empty Rooms” has commanded attention. The film follows CBS correspondent Steve Hartman and photographer Lou Bopp as they embark on a seven-year project documenting the empty bedrooms of children killed in school shootings. It’s nearly impossible to watch without tearing up. The emotional weight of the subject matter has kept the film firmly out front for most of the season, though challengers remain.
Geeta Gandbhir and Christalyn Hampton’s timely portrait of an Atlanta abortion clinic besieged by protesters, “The Devil Is Busy,” feels as urgent as ever. It’s also one of the few nominees that leaves viewers with a sense of cautious hope, told through the perspective of Tracii, the clinic’s head of security, whose strength and compassion anchor. Also notable, Gandbhir made history this year as the first Indian woman to be double nominated at the Oscars. She’s the second Indian woman nominated in documentary feature — for Netflix’s “The Perfect Neighbor” — after Nisha Pahuja who was nominated for “To Kill a Tiger” (2023). And the second Indian woman in documentary short following Smriti Mundhra, the only Indian woman to be nominated twice in any category with “St. Louis Superman” (2019) and “I Am Ready, Warden” (2024).
This year, nominees in all 24 categories appear on the final Oscar ballot, meaning name recognition could play a role for some contenders whose work is familiar to industry voters.
Hilla Medalia’s heartbreaking “Children No More: Were and Are Gone” carries the advantage of immediacy. The documentary follows activists in Tel Aviv who gather weekly for silent vigils honoring children killed during the war in Gaza. It also benefits from the involvement of veteran producer Sheila Nevins, the former MTV Documentary Films chief who many believed should have won for “The ABCs of Book Banning” (2024). Nevins’ long, decorated career — including multiple Emmy wins — gives the film additional visibility among documentary voters.
Craig Renaud’s “Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” has strong support within the nonfiction filmmaking community. The film serves as a tribute to the late journalist Brent Renaud, the first American reporter killed while covering the Russo-Ukrainian War, and a deeply personal project from his brother. Voters shared their love for the film and admitted to checking it off on their ballots.
If there’s one film in the lineup that doesn’t leave voters emotionally drained, it’s Alison McAlpine’s “Perfectly a Strangeness.” The meditative short follows three donkeys as they explore an abandoned astronomical observatory and gaze into the cosmos. More than a traditional narrative, the film offers a sensory exploration of what nonfiction cinema can be.
Final predictions are below. Each category will be updated throughout the week leading up to the 98th Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, and hosted by Conan O’Brien.
Will Win: “All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) — Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Could Win: “The Devil is Busy” (HBO Documentary Films) — Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
Should Win: “The Devil is Busy”
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