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Stalls were offering Friedrich Merz-branded popcorn at a Berlin congress of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union on Monday. And so they might. Merz, leader of the centre-right CDU and frontrunner to be chancellor in the federal election on February 23, has turned an otherwise humdrum campaign into a nerve-jangling political drama.
Last week, Merz instigated two parliamentary manoeuvres intended to showcase his readiness to take drastic steps to curb immigration. The first, a non-binding motion calling for stricter immigration rules and more powers for police to remove failed asylum seekers, was passed only with the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The second vote, to turn the motion into an actual bill, fell just short despite the AfD’s support.
Merz had previously vowed not to seek parliamentary majorities with the far right, let alone any tacit power-sharing arrangement or formal coalition. But he argued that the stabbing to death of a two-year-old child and a passer-by who tried to help in Bavaria last month, allegedly by a failed Afghan asylum seeker who had been ordered to leave the country, merited an exception. The heinous crime was the latest in a string of attacks where the suspected perpetrators are asylum seekers. Polls suggest a majority of Germans want restrictions on immigration.
Merz argues it was essential for the CDU to clarify where it stands on the matter — and contrast its position with the more permissive Social Democrats and Greens, which he blames for being unwilling to support his move. But his dalliance with the AfD has triggered fury among those who say he fractured the “firewall” against collaboration between mainstream parties and the far-right at national and state level, potentially weakening Germany’s democratic foundations. Parts of the AfD are deemed extremist by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency.
Over the weekend, 160,000 demonstrators took to the streets of the German capital to protest over Merz’s move. In a sharp rebuke, former CDU chancellor Angela Merkel said it was “wrong” and called on all mainstream parties to “work together across party lines, not as tactical manoeuvres, but in good faith, with a moderate tone and on the basis of applicable European law”.
Merz may not be too bothered by criticism from Merkel, whose centrist legacy he has set out to trash. But his manoeuvring looks at best a dangerous gamble and at worst a blunder. It has served to validate the AfD, whose MPs cheered a rare parliamentary victory last week. It has sown distrust among the CDU’s most likely coalition partners, the SPD or the Greens. Merz insists the firewall is safe with him, but what is to stop him finding further exceptions? The conservative opposition leader has turned the campaign into a referendum on his judgment and on what many see as his impulsive temperament when it should be on the failings of the outgoing government and on answers to Germany’s economic malaise.
The CDU has been losing ground in the polls since late last year and is struggling to stay above 30 per cent, according to the FT’s poll tracker. The AfD meanwhile is creeping above 20 per cent. One poll last week put the two parties only six points apart. Merz will hope his tough immigration stance will turn the tide. Germans, after all, are shifting to the right, like neighbours elsewhere. There is, though, little evidence from across Europe that attempting to match or outdo more radical challengers works in favour of mainstream conservative parties. Germany’s chances of securing the strong and stable coalition it badly needs could suffer as a result of Merz’s misjudgment.
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