Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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Andrew Eccles for Variety
Overall Oscars Commentary (Updated Jan. 21, 2025): Against the backdrop of devastating wildfires that ravaged southern California, the 97th Academy Awards are poised to announce their nominations. The fires, which have brought destruction and grief to Los Angeles and its surrounding areas, hit close to home for the entertainment industry, with roughly 60% of the Academy’s 10,000 eligible voting members residing in the City of Angels.
To accommodate those impacted, the Academy extended its voting deadline by five days, sparking speculation on how this extension might influence the final nominations. Did this extra window allow underdog films to gain last-minute momentum, or did the chaos of the fires dampen turnout among voters directly affected by the tragedy?
Despite these uncertainties, this year’s Oscar race is as competitive and unpredictable as ever. At the forefront of the conversation is Jacques Audiard’s genre-blending crime musical “Emilia Pérez,” projected to garner to be one of the leaders, ranging from 10-14 nominations. This potentially would set the record as the most-nominated non-English film in Oscar history (surpassing the 2000’s “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and 2018’s “Roma”).
At the heart of “Emilia Pérez” is Karla Sofía Gascón’s incredible performance, which could make history as the first openly transgender acting nominee. However, with such a competitive lead actress race and critical darlings like Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) surging in the final days of voting, this could be a year where a presumed “lock” is absent on nomination morning. Or something completely unexpected, a category switch with Zoe Saldaña’s performance cited in the lead, alongside her co-star, which would be the first co-leading duo recognized since Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon for “Thelma & Louise” (1991). Or perhaps Gascón’s work would mimic the year when “Judas and the Black Messiah” (2021) saw both Lakeith Stanfield and Daniel Kaluuya nominated in supporting, despite the former campaigning in the lead.
Projected nominee leaders (films): “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked” (10); “The Brutalist” (8) and “A Complete Unknown” (7); “Anora” and “Dune: Part Two” (6); “Nosferatu,” “Sing Sing” and “The Substance” (4); “Gladiator II” and “A Real Pain” (3)
Projected nominee leaders (studios): Netflix (15); Focus Features (14); A24 (13); Searchlight Pictures and Universal Pictures (10); Warner Bros. (7); Neon (6); Janus Films and Sony Pictures Classics (5); Mubi and Paramount Pictures (4)
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: A24
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Director
Image Credit: Focus Features Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Edward Berger ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Payal Kapadia
“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Actor
Image Credit: A24 Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Craig
“Queer” (A24)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Actress
Image Credit: Mubi Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Demi Moore ***
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Neon Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin ***
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Clarence Maclin
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Universal Pictures Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jamie Lee Curtis
“The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
Ariana Grande
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Janus Films/Sideshow “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Payal Kapadia
“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie FargeatOscar category page with rankings>>>
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Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Netflix “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana FoxOscar category page with rankings>>>
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Animated Feature
Image Credit: DreamWorks Animation “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Production Design
Image Credit: A24 “The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Cinematography
Image Credit: Netflix
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Costume Design
Image Credit: Paramount Pictures “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Film Editing
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “Anora” (Neon)
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Focus Features
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Sound
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Visual Effects
Image Credit: Marvel Studios “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Original Score
Image Credit: Sony Pictures Classics “The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Original Song
Image Credit: Sony Pictures Classics
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Kino Lorber “Daughters” (Netflix)
“No Other Land” (No U.S. Distribution) ***
“Porcelain War” (Picturehouse)
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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International Feature
Image Credit: Janus Films “Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
“Flow” from Larvia (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Vermiglio” from Italy (Janus Films)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Animated Short
Image Credit: Voce Spettacolo “A Bear Named Wojtek” (Illuminated Film Company)
“In the Shadow of Cypress” (Voce Spettacolo)
“Maybe Elephants” (National Film Board of Canada) ***
“Wander to Wonder” (Bantam Film)
“Yuck!” (Miyu Distribution)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Documentary Short
Image Credit: MTV Documentary Films “Death by Numbers” (Cuomo Cole Productions)
“I Am Ready, Warden” (MTV Documentary Films) ***
“Incident” (Hypnotic Pictures)
“Once Upon a Time in Ukraine” (Earle Mack Productions)
“A Swim Lesson” (Le Train Train)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Live Action Short
Image Credit: Antitalent Produkcija “Anuja” (Netflix)
“Dovecote” (LEAF Entertainment) ***
“The Last Ranger” (Six Feet Films)
“A Lien” (No U.S. Distribution)
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” (Antitalent Produkcija)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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More Information (All Categories)
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Awards Circuit Podcast (Film Season)
- Sebastian Stan on Why Playing Donald Trump Was the ‘Hardest Thing’ He’s Ever Done and How ‘Thunderbolts*’ Is Like Marvel’s ‘The Breakfast Club’
- Ariana Grande on Glinda’s New ‘Wicked 2’ Song and ‘Mulling Over’ the ‘Eternal Sunshine’ Deluxe Release: ‘I Want to Let My Children Miss Me for Two Seconds’
- ‘Nickel Boys’ Director RaMell Ross on Making the Film and Being Open to Working With Marvel Producers ‘Willing to Challenge Their Beliefs’
- Monica Barbaro on Portraying Joan Baez in ‘A Complete Unknown,’ Having a Mixed Identity in Hollywood and Being Mentored by Tom Cruise
- Cynthia Erivo Reveals She Co-Wrote an Original Song for Elphaba in ‘Wicked: For Good’: ‘When We Filmed It, the Entire Crew Was in Tears’
- Steve McQueen on Casting Saoirse Ronan in ‘Blitz’ and Why Cinema ‘Is the Best Medium in the World’
- Denzel Washington on ‘Gladiator 2’ and Calling Ryan Coogler to Apologize for Spilling ‘Black Panther 3’ News
- Ray Fisher on Going From Bartender During ‘Fences’ Broadway Theatre Run to Starring in ‘The Piano Lesson’: ‘It’s a Full Circle Moment’
- Guy Pearce on ‘The Brutalist’ Shocker, Watching Christopher Nolan Win the Oscar and the ‘L.A. Confidential’ Sequel That Almost Happened
- Jennifer Lopez on ‘Unstoppable’ and Fighting Latina Stereotypes Early in Her Career: ‘Why Can’t I Be the Girl Next Door?’
- Pharrell Williams on Seeing His ‘Flaws’ in the Lego Music Doc ‘Piece by Piece’ and Encountering PETA Protestors at Screenings: ‘Let Them Speak’
- ‘Sing Sing’ Breakout Clarence Maclin on Oscar Buzz, If He’s Playing Himself, and Why Prison Theater Programs ‘Weren’t Just Art, They Were Survival’
- Pamela Anderson on Beyonce’s ‘Beywatch’ Homage and Watching Jamie Lee Curtis Turn Orange for ‘The Last Showgirl’
- ‘The Piano Lesson’ Star Danielle Deadwyler on How August Wilson’s Plays Are ‘Love Letters to Black America’ and Being ‘Open’ to Superhero Movies
- Denis Villeneuve on ‘Dune 3,’ Amy Adams’ Oscar Snub for ‘Arrival’ and the Secret Rom-Com He Wrote
- Ryan Reynolds Says Hosting the Oscars ‘Would Be a Dream,’ Talks Academy’s ‘Greatest’ Snub and ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Success
- ‘Thelma’ Star June Squibb on Potentially Being the Oldest Oscar Nominee, Threatening Ryan Reynolds and Admiring Adam Sandler
- Isabella Rossellini on ‘Conclave’ and How She Almost Didn’t Get ‘Death Becomes Her’ Role Because the Studio ‘Wanted Someone More Famous, More Established’
- John Magaro on How Being an Extra in Steven Spielberg’s ‘Munich’ Helped Him Prepare for ‘September 5’: ‘It’s About the Responsibility of Journalists’
- Saoirse Ronan On Feeling Responsible for Protecting Young Actors in Hollywood and Her Election Fears: ‘Please Don’t Be on the Fence’
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