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Seth Walder
Multiple Authors
NFL free agency comes with its share of decisions. It’s not enough to say Defensive Tackle A is better than Defensive Tackle B. NFL teams must determine exactly how much they’re willing to pay each player. Yes, they’re looking for talent and players who can fulfill needs. But they’re also looking for value.
Ahead of the kickoff of the new league year next week, we’re picking out players who are underrated and overrated heading into free agency.
It’s reasonable to ask how one can determine if a player is underrated or overrated. Since free agency hasn’t started, we don’t know what players will receive in terms of compensation. But we do have a sense. So I’m basing this largely on the media consensus as we head into free agency.
So, let’s dive into the 2026 free agency class and find some free agents worth more than (we think) they’ll get … and vice versa.
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Underrated | Overrated
Underrated
I know what you’re thinking. He’s the top-ranked quarterback in the class, so how could Willis be underrated? Because I think he’s the most important free agent in this class, period.
I came into this thinking I would be a Willis skeptic for several reasons:
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The tiny sample (three starts in two seasons in Green Bay).
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The fact that his success came with a high-end playcaller in Matt LaFleur.
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That he struggled to get on the field in Tennessee in his first two seasons and wasn’t very good when he did.
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Even with his success in Green Bay, he didn’t throw all that much.
But I rewatched his start against the Ravens in Week 17, and my opinion radically transformed. In that game Willis showed his ability to throw with anticipation (a touchdown throw to Christian Watson deep over the middle of the field), the ability to change arm angles (a throw to Romeo Doubs in the middle of the field), elite speed (a 22-yard touchdown run), the traits to throw on the run (a pass to Jayden Reed downfield) and elusiveness in the pocket (avoiding a sack and throwing a 31-yard pass to Watson).
And his numbers were staggering in that small sample. Since joining Green Bay in 2024, Willis has an 86.3 QBR, averaged 9.2 yards per dropback and has a plus-7% completion percentage over expected (NFL Next Gen Stats). Those numbers would all rank first over the past two seasons among QBR-qualified quarterbacks if he was able to keep up that torrid pace in a bigger sample.
Finding a franchise quarterback in free agency is very unlikely. I’m not saying that Willis is destined to be one, and I’m terrified of basing a take on such a small number of plays. But if a franchise quarterback were to emerge from free agency, he would look a lot like Willis — a player who was drafted in the early rounds and, after some development time, flashed in a small sample. For the QB-needy teams out there, Willis provides them with a real chance.
Signing Gainwell won’t be as flashy as inking Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, Travis Etienne Jr. or Breece Hall. And Gainwell might not be an every-down back, either. But he can easily be a team’s best running back and his contract won’t cost as much as those of bigger names.
Gainwell is coming off a nice season with the Steelers in which he recorded 4.7 yards per carry and 63 rush yards over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He recorded 10.6 yards per carry on plays in which he wasn’t contacted for at least 3 yards — sixth best among all running backs with at least 100 carries.
But Gainwell really excels on passing downs. He recorded 73 receptions for 486 yards last season in Pittsburgh, including 82 receiving yards over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That included both a positive catch rate over expected and positive YAC over expected. The Steelers had Gainwell on the field on 77% of third-and-longs. So he can absolutely be a value add.
Due to the Chargers’ offensive tackle injury issues, Salyer played 343 snaps between both tackle spots scattered across the 2025 season. The results? Not too bad!
He finished in the 46th percentile in pass block win rate and 40th percentile in run block win rate (postseason included). That is hardly incredible but is serviceable for someone who will probably have a cheaper contract than Giants free agent Jermaine Eluemunor or a player like Tytus Howard, who was traded from the Texans to the Browns and handed a significant deal earlier this week.
I think Robinson will get a decent haul in free agency, but perhaps not as much as he should thanks to the reputation — built over the first three seasons of his career — that he’s just a short-area slot receiver.
Robinson’s role shifted last season, as did his production. He lined up in the slot 52% of the time in 2025 (down from 72% the year before). His average depth three seconds into a route was 8.3 yards (up from 7.2). And his air yards per target was 8.8 (up massively from 4.9 the year before). All of this coincided with a significant increase in performance, with his yards per route run jumping from 1.3 to 2.1.
Robinson commanded an impressive 28% target rate last season. Part of that is lack of target competition after Malik Nabers tore his ACL in Week 4. But that target share doesn’t occur unless Robinson is playing well, which his 65 open score in ESPN’s receiver scores further demonstrated.
Onyemata is 33, but his numbers suggest that he could be an ideal short-term solution at defensive tackle next season, especially in a light free agent class at the position. Onyemata was in the 92nd percentile in run stop win rate at defensive tackle last season and 68th percentile in pass rush win rate despite having only one sack. The only drawback? He ranked 18th percentile in pressure rate.
Sure, Onyemata is not quite as good as John Franklin-Myers — the top defensive tackle in this class — but his contract will probably cost far less.
Overrated
I’m guessing Paye will get some money as a former first-round pick who has racked up 30.5 sacks in five seasons. But I would be careful.
Among qualifying edge rushers, Paye finished last in pass rush win rate at the position at only 4.5%. His pressure rate among those same players was in the 12th percentile. Those are damning numbers for down-to-down play. He was in the bottom quartile in both metrics in 2024, too. His pass rush win rate at edge was almost average in 2023, but I believe his recent performance is too lackluster to pay him real money.
Etienne improved in what might have been his final season in Jacksonville, delivering 1,103 rushing yards at 4.3 yards per carry over 17 games and finishing with 44 rush yards over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It’s good that the last number was positive, but Etienne was negative in that category the two prior seasons — with minus-77 RYOE in 2023 and minus-43 in 2024 (to be fair, he had a huge plus-231 in 2022).
Paying a high-cost contract to a running back who hasn’t consistently been able to get what is blocked for him is not advisable unless that back delivers in a major way in a different area. But Etienne doesn’t.
While he had six receiving touchdowns last season, his 36 receptions for 292 yards weren’t prolific. And critically, the Jaguars put Etienne on the field on third-and-7-plus plays only 6% of the time, which shows what they thought of him on passing downs.
A year ago, I was willing to be talked into the idea that maybe Rodgers needed another year of separation from his 2023 Achilles injury to return to being a highly productive quarterback.
But after a QBR of 44.4 last season — which ranked 23rd out of 28 qualifiers — I’m ready to say that redemption ship has sailed. Rodgers is 42 years old and hoping that 2026 will be the first season he plays good ball since 2021. Sure, there are flashes here and there, moments when he can still rip it and create a play with his arm. But mostly Rodgers gets the ball out extremely quickly (2.59 seconds, fastest in the NFL) so he can throw short (76% of his passes were under 10 air yards, most in the league).
It’s a strategy that keeps him upright (his 10.8% QB hit rate is much better than the 14.4% league average) and results in very few turnovers. But that’s not enough to overcome 6.7 yards per attempt for a quarterback who can’t run.
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I expect Taylor to get paid after coming off a legitimately nice season and at a time when nickel corners are increasingly valuable. But he has the profile of a player who scares me. Corners are notoriously volatile year to year, so I’m always a little wary of buying in after a big season.
That’s particularly true in Taylor’s case. Taylor allowed 1.6 yards per coverage snap in 2023 primarily playing slot corner, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is much worse than the 1.1 average. In 2024, this time playing primarily outside, Taylor again surrendered 1.6 yards per coverage snap. Taylor had his breakout last season after moving back to the nickel, with 1.0 yards per coverage snap and minus-1.4 EPA allowed after positive numbers (which indicate worse performance) the two prior seasons.
Which level of performance is most likely to be the outlier? I think there’s an awfully good chance it’s 2025.
Reader is a nose tackle whose run-stuffing numbers have not been impressive lately. Run stop win rate is not a fan of what he did last season, with a sixth-percentile score among interior defenders.
I’ll be the first to tell you there can be a fair amount of noise in our run-stopping metric, but defensive tackles tend to have cleaner numbers than other positions do. And Reader’s struggles are backed up by more basic stats, too.
Reader’s tackle rate against the run was only in the ninth percentile. Even if we compare only his play at nose tackle to others’ play at the position, that number is still just in the 23rd percentile. He was below average in NFL Next Gen Stats’ run stop rate and stuff rate, relative to other defensive tackles, too.
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