Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
The Pitt
Primetime Emmys Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: March 12, 2026): As one awards season ends, another in a different entertainment medium is set to begin.
The 79th Emmy Awards are still months away, with nominations arriving July 8 and the ceremony set for Sept. 14 on NBC and Peacock, but the conversation is already underway. With an eligibility window running through the end of May and the nomination voting period set for June 11 to 22, the field is both wide open and uniquely competitive as streaming giants and legacy networks vie for television’s most coveted honors.
On the drama side, HBO Max looks particularly formidable. Two-time, record-breaking Emmy winner Zendaya returns in “Euphoria,” possibly for the final season, under enormous expectations and with a fan base that simply will not quit. Noah Wyle is back with the sophomore season of the medical drama “The Pitt,” ready to defend his crown.
Apple TV+ continues to reward patient viewers with “Slow Horses,” while the freshman series “Pluribus,” led by Rhea Seehorn, has generated critical heat that suggests it will not be overlooked. Hulu is swinging hard with “The Testaments” and “Paradise,” the latter anchored by Sterling K. Brown in some of the most compelling work of his decorated career.
Paramount+ brings star power with another Taylor Sheridan project, “The Madison,” featuring Kurt Russell and Michelle Pfeiffer, a pairing clearly designed to grab Television Academy attention.
Netflix leans on nostalgia and cultural impact with the final season of “Stranger Things,” reminding voters of the show’s lasting significance. The streaming giant also returns with the third season of “The Diplomat,” following Keri Russell’s recent success at the Actor Awards, formerly the SAG Awards.
Comedy is even more crowded this year. HBO Max fields the final season of “Hacks” and the returning “The Comeback,” with Jean Smart once again a near-lock for lead actress recognition, even before the fifth season airs. Lisa Kudrow also reminds voters of her enduring comedic timing and iconic character.
FX’s “The Bear” set the standard for comedy in previous seasons, but the fourth season has generated less buzz than its predecessors. ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” continues to thrive, anchored by Quinta Brunson and a deep supporting cast including Sheryl Lee Ralph, Janelle James, and Tyler James Williams. Chris Perfetti or Lisa Ann Walter could join the Emmy conversation this season.
Apple TV+ has quietly delivered one of the warmest comedies with “Shrinking,” featuring a surprising turn from Harrison Ford, who will aim to claim the Emmy he lost last year. Netflix continues with the second season of “Nobody Wants This,” which earned Kristen Bell some of the season’s most enthusiastic praise. Prime Video debuts the highly anticipated “Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat,” testing whether Emmy voters embrace the format-bending energy that made the original series so beloved.
The limited series and movie categories are equally competitive. HBO Max’s “Half Man” follows up the phenomenon of “Baby Reindeer” with another deeply personal, formally daring project from Richard Gadd, alongside Jamie Bell. FX offers “Love Story,” anchored by a stacked ensemble including Paul Anthony Kelly, Sarah Pidgeon, Alessandro Nivola, Grace Gummer, and Naomi Watts. Netflix juggles the already released “The Beast in Me,” reuniting Claire Danes with prestige drama, alongside the next edition of the dark anthology series “Beef,” showcasing Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan, Charles Melton, and Cailee Spaeny. Peacock’s “All Her Fault,” starring Sarah Snook fresh off her “Succession” triumph, is expected to mount one of the season’s most watched campaigns.
In the movie category, Netflix could dominate with “Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man,” a feature-length send-off for the beloved franchise, alongside “Happy Gilmore 2,” which may prove that populist comedy still has a place on the Emmy stage.
Acting races are exceptionally deep this season. Kathy Bates returns in the sophomore season of CBS’ “Matlock,” while dark horses such as Alexander Skarsgård in “Murderbot” and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II in Disney’s “Wonder Man” have strong advocates behind them. Comedy lead actress is likely the tightest race, featuring recent Oscar nominees Kate Hudson in Netflix’s “Running Point” and Elle Fanning in Apple TV+’s freshman series “Margo’s Got Money Troubles.”
Fox has a new entry this year, “Best Medicine,” premiering at the end of March and starring Josh Charles. The hour-long comedy-drama hybrid will be interesting to track for awards submission strategy. Fox also continues to field its animated flagship, “The Simpsons.”
AMC may no longer dominate as it did with “Breaking Bad,” but it could have a breakout with Jonathan Glatzer’s thriller “The Audacity,” starring Billy Magnussen and Sarah Goldberg, set against the backdrop of Silicon Valley.
Surveying the landscape this early, no single show or network is guaranteed to dominate, making the next few months genuinely exciting and wide open.
This list is nowhere complete, and the individual category pages will be released over the coming weeks. The race will change as fast as our channels do.
Projected nomination leaders (series): TBD
Projected nomination leaders (networks): Netflix (27); HBO Max (25); Apple TV (15); Hulu (10)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Drama Series
Image Credit: Netflix “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“Euphoria” (HBO Max)
“The Madison” (Paramount+)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
“Pluribus” (Apple TV)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
“The Testaments” (Hulu)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Comedy Series
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX)
“The Comeback” (HBO Max)
“Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
“Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” (Prime Video)
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Limited or Anthology Series
Image Credit: HBO Max “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
“The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
“Beef” (Netflix)
“Half Man” (HBO Max) ***
“Love Story” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Outstanding Movie
Image Credit: Netflix “Echo Valley” (Apple TV)
“Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix)
“Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man” (Netflix) ***
“Queen of Coal” (Netflix)
”The Thursday Murder Club” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: FX Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Ethan Hawke, “The Lowdown” (FX)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Mark Ruffalo, “Task” (HBO Max)
Kurt Russell, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Hulu Domhnall Gleeson, “The Paper” (Peacock)
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) ***
Alexander Skarsgård, “Murderbot” (Prime Video)
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actor (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “Wonder Man” (Disney+)
Richard Gadd, “Half Man” (HBO Max)
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”
Oscar Isaac, “Beef” (Netflix)
Paul Anthony Kelly, “Love Story” (FX) ***
Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: CBS Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS)
Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments” (Hulu)
Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Zendaya, “Euphoria” (HBO Max) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actress (Comedy)
Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Kate Hudson, “Running Point” (Netflix)
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” (HBO Max)
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actress (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix Linda Cardellini, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Carey Mulligan, “Beef” (Netflix)
Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story” (FX) ***
Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Tessa Thompson, “His and Hers” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Paramount+ Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje, “Euphoria” (HBO Max) ***
Jamie Campbell Bower, “Stranger Things” (Netflix)
Colman Domingo, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Paul Giamatti, “Star Trek: Starfleet Academy” (Paramount+)
Gerran Howell, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
James Marsden, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Tom Pelphrey, “Task” (HBO Max)
Carlos-Manuel Vesga, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: ABC Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
Marcello Hernandez, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Andrew Scott, “The Comeback” (HBO Max)
Michael Urie, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actor (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Disney+ Jonathan Banks, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Jamie Bell, “Half Man” (HBO Max)
Stephen Graham, “Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man” (Netflix)
Ben Kingsley, “Wonder Man” (Disney+)
Troy Kotsur, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Charles Melton, “Beef” (Netflix) ***
Alessandro Nivola, “Love Story” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actress (Drama)
Taylor Dearden, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Ann Dowd, “The Testaments” (Hulu)
Sarah Goldberg, “The Audacity” (AMC)
Allison Janney, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Sydney Sweeney, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: NBC Erika Alexander, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) ***
Ashley Padilla, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Michelle Pfeiffer, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Meg Stalter, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Jessica Williams, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actress (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix Dakota Fanning, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Grace Gummer, “Love Story” (FX)
Laurie Metcalf, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Brittany Snow, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Cailee Spaeny, “Beef” (Netflix)
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Beef” (Netflix)
Naomi Watts, “Love Story” (FX) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Variety Series
Image Credit: ABC “The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC) ***
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Game Show
Image Credit: Dropout “Celebrity Family Feud” (Syndicated)
“Game Changer” (Dropout)
“Jeopardy” (Syndicated) ***
“The Price is Right” (Syndicated)
“Wheel of Fortune” (Syndicated)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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